The second leg in the HSBC SVNS Series sees the top teams going head-to-head in Cape Town on Saturday and Sunday.
Fiji and Australia won the Men’s and Women’s Tournament respectively in Dubai and a change in the format means that any loss in the group stages would mean the team has almost no chance of winning the competition.
FORMAT
Let’s start with a look at the format where there are now 4 pools of 3 teams. This means only 2 pool matches per side and the winner of each pool will go straight to the semi-finals with the 2nd place finishers playing in the Plate and the 3rd spot in the pools will play off for 9th to 12th position.
This new format has been introduced for player welfare considerations and will apply in the second leg of any double-headers this season. The implications of the change are less games to watch, but also that a loss in the group stages will almost certainly cost a team any chance of a place in the semi-finals.
MEN’S OUTRIGHT BETTING
Argentina and South Africa are trading as 11/4 favourites ahead of Fiji at 33/10, you can get 9/2 New Zealand and 9/1 and better the balance.
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POOL A – Winner
Fiji 2/9
Great Britain 7/2
Uruguay 18/1
Fiji were in great form in Dubai and it is hard to see any of the two teams in their group stopping their march to the semi-final.
POOL B – Winner
Australia 6/10
Spain 18/10
Kenya 15/2
Spain were the surprise packages in Dubai finishing 2nd, but Australia should win this group justifying the 6/10 favouritism.
POOL C – Winner
Argentina 19/20
South Africa 19/20
Ireland 14/1
South Africa couldn’t have asked for a tougher group given the new format. The match between Argentina and South Africa will effectively be a quarter-final.
POOL D – Winner
New Zealand 5/10
France 17/10
USA 16/1
The USA are quite capable of causing an upset on their day, but France and New Zealand should be too strong for them and I expect New Zealand to progress to the semi-finals.
VERDICT
I am not a fan of this format and South Africa and Argentina have both drawn the short straws in this one.
Fiji look to have the easiest route to the last 4 and I think they are the value play here at 33/10 to win the Tournament.
BET: Fiji to win at 33/10
There will be betting on each match and South Africa are -12.5 against Ireland in their opener.
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WOMEN’S OUTRIGHT BETTING
Australia are the 5/10 favourites, ahead of New Zealand who they beat in the final in Dubai. France are 11/1 and you can get 28/1 and better the balance.
None of the groups look particularly competitive and the only pool winner which might be in some doubt is Pool D where the USA is 8/15, Great Britain 13/8 and Fiji the 14/1 underdogs.
I am battling to look past an Australia win, but at 5/10 I am going to keep my powder dry and concentrate on the men’s competition.
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All prices subject to change
