The penultimate event of the DP World Tour, the Nedbank Golf Challenge takes place at the Gary Player Country Club at Sun City this week and we select four players to take on the bookmakers.
THE COURSE
The Gary Player Country Club plays to a par 72 and is one of the longest courses around although due to it being at altitude the ball flies significantly further. The fairways are reasonably easy to find, but if you miss them and find the kikuyu rough you can find yourself in a lot of trouble and really wayward tee shots are often unplayable in the thick bush.
The type of golfer we are looking for this week as length off the tee, but most importantly puts himself into position to go for the green in regulation and it would be a surprise were the winner not to feature amongst the top players in the greens and regulations stats this week.
THE FIELD
This is a limited field event with the top 60 players from the DP World Tour rankings qualifying as well as the winner of the Sunshine Tour order of merit and a few other invitees.
PAST WINNERS
2022 – Tommy Fleetwood -11
2021 – Cancelled due to COVID-19
2020 – Cancelled due to COVID-19
2019 – Tommy Fleetwood -12*
2018 – Lee Westwood – 15
2017 – Branden Grace -11
Playoff*
MARKET LEADERS
Tommy Fleetwood tees it up this week as the 7/1 favourite and he is going for a hat-trick of victories having won in 2019 and 2022 (no Tournament due to COVID in 2020/21). Max Homa, one of the few shining lights in the US Ryder Cup team is the 17/2 second favourite with his Ryder Cup teammate, Justin Thomas priced at 16/1 alongside Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk.
THE BETTING – Click here to bet
Tommy Fleetwood 7/1
Max Homa 17/2
Justin Thomas 16/1
Ryan Fox 16/1
Adrian Meronk 16/1
22/1 and better the balance, prices correct at the time of posting but subject to change
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VERDICT
This is a tournament where we seldom get a massive upset so I will certainly be taking a good look at those players towards the top of the betting boards. That been said I do feel Fleetwood is a bit short at 7/1 and I am not sure what sort of shape Max Homa’s game will be as he hasn’t played competitively since the Ryder Cup.
SELECTIONS
My selections this week could not be described as long shots, but they are also not the top favourites.
Suggested Bet: Aaron Rai each way at 22/1
Rai returns here for the first time since 2019 when he finished 13th and in his debut a year earlier he had finished 8th so he clearly enjoys the course. He has been in solid form of late as well and was 9th at Qatar Masters and 2nd in the BMW Championship, a couple of months ago.
Suggested Bet: Ryan Fox each way at 16/1
Fox has been lightly raced in recent weeks, but he has three Top 3’s to his credit in 5 starts including a win at Wentworth. After a mediocre start at Sun City in 2017 through to 2019 he found his liking for the course last year and finished runner-up to Fleetwood.
Fox has a great game for this golf course and of those at the top of the betting boards I think he offers the best value this week.
Suggested Bet: Jordan Smith each way at 25/1
Smith has been in good form with a runner-up and a Top 5 in his last 4 starts, that 5th place finish came two weeks ago in his last start and he was a solid enough 13th at Sun City last year and I think he looks well placed to go close in 2023.
Suggested Bet: Marcel Siem each way at 60/1
Siem is my rank outsider this week and I base that largely on his course form which has seen him take a 4th place and a 6th place finish in three starts albeit they were spread between 2014 and 2020 where he achieved it in a Sunshine Tour event with a weaker field.
Siem missed the cut in his last start, but prior to that was in excellent form with a Top 10 and a Top 5 finish.
There are plenty of other markets available on the Nedbank Golf Challenge and you can click here for all of them.
