The season finale of the DP World Tour is here. The circuit’s elite descend on Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai for the chance to cap their year in style. Below we break down the course, recap recent champions, scan the betting, and share a few selections.
The Course
The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates is an iconic closing venue. A par 72 measuring 7,675 yards (7,018 metres) it is one of the longest on tour. It offers wide fairways and large, fast greens with plenty of subtle contours. Deep, gleaming bunkers and shaved run-offs punish indifferent approaches, so iron play and short-game control are at a premium.
The layout rewards aggressive drivers, but it’s the risk-reward closing stretch that often decides the title: water and a meandering creek influence the final holes, especially the dramatic par-5 18th, where players must choose between laying up or taking on the green in two. Calm conditions can yield low scoring; a fresh afternoon breeze quickly raises the degree of difficulty.
Past Winners
2024 Rory McIlroy (3) (Northern Ireland) -15 2 strokes
2023 Nicolai Hojgaard (Denmark) -21 2 strokes
2022 Jon Rahm (3) (Spain) -20 2 strokes
2021 Collin Morikawa (Unites States) -17 3 strokes
2020 Matt Fitzpatrick (2) (England) -15 1 stroke
2019 Jon Rahm (Spain) -19 1 stroke
As expected, we have a quality field and the bookies have the defending champion, Rory McIlroy, as favourite to win, trading at 4.50 at the time of writing. The PGA Tour Championship winner, Tommy Fleetwood, is second favourite trading at 7.50 while Robert McIntyre and Ludvig Aberg are both trading at 13.00.
Betting – Click here to bet
Rory McIlroy 4.50
Tommy Fleetwood 7.50
Robert McIntyre 13.00
Ludvig Aberg 13.00
Tyrrell Hatton 15.00
Matt Fitzpatrick 17.00
SELECTIONS:
Rory McIlroy at 4.50
McIlroy has had quite a remarkable season. He completed his career grand slam by winning the Masters, won his home open, the Irish Open, in a playoff after making an eagle to force the playoff and played a huge role in an away Ryder Cup win. He will look to win his 7th Race to Dubai Title as well as his fourth DP World Tour Championship. McIlroy is the defending champion and to make it all the more sweeter, he is coming off the back of his lowest ever DP World Tour round in the final round of last weekends tournament.
Rory McIlroy win only at 4.50.
Marco Penge at 19.00
One of the breakout performers of the year and currently second in the standings behind McIlroy. Comes in off 9th at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and, before that, a playoff victory at the Open de España. First start at this finale, but his recent form and confident putting travel well to Earth’s big, quick surfaces.
Marco Penge each way at 19.00
Golf Playoff
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Rasmus Hojgaard at 21.00
Hojgaard has had a pretty impressive record in Dubai over the last three years. He has finished 11th or better on every occasion with his best finish being runner-up at last year’s tournament. He is coming into this week off the back of a top 25 finish as well as a top 15 and top 5 in the two starts before that. If he can play like he did last year, I think he stands an excellent chance.
Rasmus Hojgaard each way at 21.00.
Looking for a longshot
My rank outsider this week is Elvis Smylie, who often finds form as the season winds down. He impressed with a runner-up finish four starts back before a couple of missed cuts, and although he faded late in Abu Dhabi, a 32nd-place finish there was still a solid effort. Smylie makes his Earth Course debut, but the wide fairways and emphasis on confident ball-striking should play to his strengths. At triple-figure odds, he’s a value long shot who could quietly climb the board if the putter warms up.
Apologies for the late posting but I will be looking at an in-running play if he starts well – his price was 101.00 but I am hoping he is within 3 shots after round 1 and hopefully around 60/1
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