Stage 19 of the Tour de France starts in Moiran-en-Montagne and ends in Poligny 172.8 kilometres later. There are only 2 short categorised climbs along the way, but the terrain is hilly and the breakaway may have its day again.
STAGE 18 WRAP
We had said Stage 18 would be a thrilling battle between the teams looking for a sprint finish and the breakaway, but early on it looked anything but that as a very small 3 man break was allowed to get clear.
That break eventually became 4 men, but the odds against them holding out against the sprinters teams were slim, but all 4 of the riders remained committed and one by one the sprinters teams started throwing in the towel. In the end it was Kasper Asgreen who sprinted clear to take the win and he was available at 66/1 before the start of the stage. Pascal Eenkhoorn finished 2nd having bridged across to the breakaway and Jonas Abrahamsen was an impressive 3rd place. Jasper Philipsen won the sprint from the bunch to finish 4th.
JERSEY UPDATE
There were no changes to the major classifications and Vingegaard and Philipsen have basically wrapped up the Yellow and Green Jerseys. The Polka Dot Jersey is still up for grabs although Ciccone is the 5/10 favourite and Jumbo-Visma are 1/5 to win the Team competition.
STAGE 19 BETTING – Click here to bet
Jasper Philipsen 7/1
Mads Petersen 7/1
Mathieu Van Der Poel 8/1
Magnus Cort Nielsen 11/1
Matej Mohoric 14/1
Soren Kragh Andersen 16/1
20/1 and better the balance
ROUTE
I was very surprised such a weak breakaway had a go at Stage 18. There must be many teams kicking themselves for not taking part given that the break eventually held firm.
Stage 19 has much more rolling terrain and also has a Cat 4 climb of 1.9 kilometres at 5.7% after 21 kilometres and this could be a launch pad for a strong break. Quite possibly a number of riders didn’t go for the break on Stage 18 because they were targeting Stage 19 so this should be a frantic battle and it will either go quickly with large numbers or we could have an extended race to get into the break with teams who missed out constantly, bringing the action back together.
VERDICT
I thought the break was the favourite in Stage 18 and although that certainly was not the case for most of the stage I am very confident the break will sail free and not be caught in Stage 19.
Mathieu Van Der Poel has been a loyal teammate to Philipsen throughout this Tour de France and this looks like a stage better suited to his skills and I am expecting him to be in the breakaway and from there he must have a good chance of finishing the job.
Suggested bet: Van Der Poel win at 8/1
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Movistar haven’t had a particularly successful tour, but Alex Aranburu has looked good in recent weeks. I backed him at the last minute at a much bigger price in Stage 18, but he never got involved in the early action and I think that was as he has got his eye on today’s stage. He is climbing well and as long as he can avoid riders like Pedersen and Philipsen he has a chance of winning a sprint from a small group.
Suggested Bet: Aranburu win at 40/1
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
