Stage 17 of the Tour de France is the last true mountain stage and it starts in Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc and ends 166 kilometres later in Courchevel.
With Jonas Vingegaard from Jumbo-Visma now firmly in the Yellow Jersey tactics are going to be interesting
STAGE 16 WRAP UP
The Stage 16 22.4 kilometre Time Trial was expected to be a two horse race between Vingegaard and Pogacar who were only separated by 10 seconds in the overall classification. Pogacar put in an excellent Time Trial beating 3rd place, Wout Van Aert by over a minute, but Vingegaard turned in a performance that many hardened cycling fans have said it is perhaps the best they have ever seen, putting 1 minute 38 into his biggest rival over just 22.4 kilometres.
JERSEY UPDATE
Vingegaard now leads Pogacar by 1 minute 48 seconds and he has gone from 8/10 to 1/8 to win the race. Pogacar at 8/1 is the only rider given any chance of challenging him.
Ciccone picked up the mountain points on the stage and he is now 2/1 to win the Polka Dot Jersey with Pogacar and Vingegaard just behind him in 9/4.
Philipsen remains 7/100 favourite for the Points Classification and Jumbo-Visma and Ineos are joint favourites at 7/4 for the Team Classification although Jumbo-Visma have now moved 9 minutes clear.
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STAGE 17 BETTING – Click here to bet
Jonas Vingegaard 2/1
Tadej Pogacar 5/2
Adam Yates 16/1
Wout Poels 22/1
David Gaudu 22/1
Carlos Rodriguez 22/1
25/1 and better the balance
THE ROUTE
Stage 17 is an absolute brute with a Cat 1 climb with 13.4 kilometres at 5.1% after just 15 Kilometres. There is hardly flat road all day and the riders are soon on to another Cat 1 measuring 19.9 kilometres at 6% before a long descent and a climb up a Cat 2 of 6.6 kilometres at 7.5%. The race ends on the Col de la Loze which peaks at over 2300 metres of altitude and has time bonuses at the top before the 6.6 kilometre descent to the finish.
VERDICT
Had Jonas Vingegaard been behind Pogacar or perhaps slightly ahead, he would have certainly gone after the stage as he goes very well on long climbs at high altitude. There is no need for the team to be too aggressive now though and they quite possibly will sit back and see what Pogacar’s UAE team can do. This may open the opportunity for a breakaway to take the stage, but it looks like another one which is really tough to call from a betting angle.
Although Pogacar is forced to do something I think things could get tactical between the two leaders and I think this could be a stage for Vingegaard’s trusted lieutenant, Sepp Kuss to take advantage and ride to the win.
Suggested Bet: Sepp Kuss win at 66/1
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In the Match Bets market I am going to go for Ineos’s Carlos Rodriguez to beat Adam Yates at 17/20. Yates is looking great and although on the podium maybe used as a tactical pawn in a bid to unsettle Vingegaard, this could open the door for Rodriguez.
Suggested Bet: Rodriguez/Adam Yates at 17/20
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
