Stage 11 of the Tour de France starts in Clermont-Ferrand and ends 179.8 kilometres later in Moulins. Although there are a couple of categorized climbs early in the stage this should be one for the sprinters.
STAGE 10 WRAP
The break arrived as expected in Stage 10, but it was anything but an ordinary stage with the break taking ages to form and at one point we even had the first two in the classification, Pogacar and Vingegaard in the break. The break eventually settled with a number of top climbers in it although there was a stage where it looked as though Jumbo-Visma or Intermarché were going to chase it down.
There was a very strange sight of Wout Van Aert and Mathieu Van Der Poel taking off together to try and close a 3 minute gap, but it soon became clear they wouldn’t be successful.
Neilands broke clear out the final climb and tried to make a run for home, but he was chased down and it was eventually Pello Bilbao who got the win ahead of Zimmermann with Ben O’Connor completing the podium.
JERSEY UPDATE
There is no change in the General Classification other than Bilbao and Tadej Pogacar remains the 9/10 favourite ahead of Vingegaard at 1/1.
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Pogacar is also 11/4 favourite for the King of the Mountains with Philipsen now 1/8 for the Green Jersey Points Classification and Ineos remain odds on favourites at 4/6 to win the Team Classification, but Bahrain Victorious, the current leaders, have shortened into 9/4 from 4/1 before the stage.
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STAGE 11 BETTING – Click here to bet
Jasper Philipsen 11/10
Dylan Groenewegen 7/1
Wout Van Aert 9/1
Caleb Ewan 10/1
Fabio Jakobsen 12/1
Mads Pedersen 12/1
Phil Bauhaus 18/1
22/1 and better the balance
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ROUTE
The first 27 kilometres of the stage are flat and the sprinter teams will be happy to see a fairly small breakaway go clear. If the peloton are all together when they start the Cat 4 climb after 27 kilometres we may get a stronger break as although there is only 1.9 kilometres at 5% it is followed by another Cat 4, 2.9 kilometres at 6%.
Good news for the sprinters team is that the second-half of the stage has a few hills, but only 1 small classified climb of 1.6 kilometres at 5.4% and that peaks out with 60 kilometres remaining. It is hard to look past a sprint finish.
VERDICT
This is one of those stages where it doesn’t pay to overthink. Jasper Philipsen has been the fastest in the field, but he also has great legs, able to handle the climbs better than other sprinters. I am expecting him to be put in position by Mathieu Van Der Poel and to win another stage.
Remember by backing Philipsen at World Sports Betting you do get the insurance of money back for 2nd place which makes this bet even more attractive.
Suggested Bet: Jasper Philipsen win at 11/10
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
