Stage 11 of the Tour de France is an absolute brute starting in Albertville and ending 151.7 kilometres later with the climb of the Col du Granon Serre Chevalier one of the most brutal mountain passes in all of France.
STAGE 10 RECAP
As expected Stage 10 went to the breakaway while the General Classification men decided to wait for the bigger stages lying ahead. The race to get into the break was frenetic but eventually we got a big group of riders out in front. The final couple of kilometres were dramatic with Magnus Cort Nielsen who had looked down and out at one point storming back to win the sprint finish by the narrowest of margins over Australian, Nick Schulz with Luis Leon Sanchez finishing 3rd. The Yellow Jersey candidates decided to keep their powder dry right up until the very end where Pogacar tried to gain a second or two that was well matched by Vingegaard.
JERSEY UPDATE
There has been some change to the Yellow Jersey standings, while Pogacar still leads Vingegaard by 39 seconds, Lennard Kamna came within 11 seconds of snatching the Yellow Jersey from the breakaway on Stage 10. He unfortunately faded out late and it is unlikely that he is going to get another chance to lead the Tour de France this year.
Wout Van Aert is dominating the Green Jersey and Simon Geschke has a narrow lead over Bob Jungels in the King of the Mountains.
Ineos pulled out a 9 minute lead over Jumbo-Visma in the Team Classification.
Pogacar has drifted slightly to 11/20 in the betting for the Yellow Jersey with Vingegaard priced at 9/4 and Pogacar and Thibaut Pinot 11/4 joint favourites in the King of the Mountains.
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BETTING – Click here to bet
Tadej Pogacar 9/4
Jonas Vingegaard 15/4
Thibaut Pinot 7/1
Primoz Roglic 18/1
Jakob Fuglsang 18/1
STAGE 11 ROUTE AND PREDICTIONS
The stage gets off to a fairly flat start with a Green Jersey sprint coming after 60.5 kilometres. It will be interesting to see if the competition to get into the break will be as hot as it was the last few days and if so there is a good chance that it will only go on the Cat 2 climb which starts at the 46 kilometre mark.
The second-half of the stage is absolutely brutal with the Col du Télégraphe, the Col du Galibier and the finishing climb in relatively close succession.
It is going to be very interesting to see if the likes of Ineos and Jumbo Visma can put Team UAE under pressure and I am expecting them to try just that which means the breakaway will probably be swallowed up half way up the final climb.
SELECTIONS:
Primoz Roglic at 18/1
Roglic is hopefully recovering from his injury and Pogacar may well give him some leeway to attack on the final climb as he keeps his eyes on Vingegaard.
Match Bet, Vingegaard over Pogacar at 15/10
This is my main bet and I am expecting Vingegaard to put some pressure on Pogacar on the final climb. There is not much that separates these guys when it comes to climbing ability and Vingegaard with a stronger team may just be able to grab the advantage.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
