The Nations Championship delivers its blockbuster fixture this week as France host South Africa at the Stade de France in Paris on Friday 13 November. It is a pivotal game for both teams, with France and South Africa sitting top of the log in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere tables respectively, but a loss could see either side give up that top spot with just 1 round to play.
France are looking for revenge after last year’s defeat to South Africa in Paris and come into the game in strong form but missing a few key players. South Africa are the favourites, but we have turned to the handicap and total points markets, where we think the value lies.
Below is our full betting preview for the match.
France
France started the year strongly, finishing top of the table to win the Six Nations. They then turned their heads to the first three rounds of the Nations Championship in the Southern Hemisphere. Their opening match saw them lose 34-32 to New Zealand, but they then bounced back with two solid wins over Australia, 42-26, and Japan, 42-15. The return to the campaign saw them beat Fiji 54-17 at home last weekend.
Despite missing a host of players, the French have named a strong side this week, with just three changes from last week’s win over Fiji. Julien Marchand comes in to start in place of Maxime Lamothe, while Grégory Alldritt returns at number eight. The big news, however, is that Maxime Lucu is promoted from the bench, because Antoine Dupont will start in the number 10 jersey.
Starting XV: 15. Théo Attissogbe, 14. Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, 13. Kalvin Gourgues, 12. Yoram Moefana, 11. Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10. Antoine Dupont (captain), 9. Maxime Lucu, 8. Grégory Alldritt, 7. Cameron Woki, 6. François Cros, 5. Mickaël Guillard, 4. Florian Verhaeghe, 3. Sipili Falatea, 2. Julien Marchand, 1. Jean-Baptiste Gros
Replacements: 16. Peato Mauvaka, 17. Rodrigue Neti, 18. Régis Montagne, 19. Charles Ollivon, 20. Tom Staniforth, 21. Esteban Capilla, 22. Axel Desperes, 23. Émilien Gailleton
South Africa
South Africa put on a clinical performance last week as they demolished Italy 66-7 to continue their perfect run of form in the Nations Championship. Rounds 1, 2 and 3 saw them beat England 45-21, Scotland 42-28 and Wales 43-0, all at home. In between those matches and now, they beat New Zealand 3-1 in a series, beat Argentina 17-10 and lost 42-38 to Australia away from home.
South Africa have made just two changes from the side that played last week, with Wilco Louw coming in for Thomas du Toit in the front row and Cobus Reinach replacing Grant Williams on the bench. Morné van den Berg will start again at nine after a brilliant man of the match performance last weekend.
Starting XV: 15. Damian Willemse, 14. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Ethan Hooker, 10. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9. Morné van den Berg, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6. Siya Kolisi (captain), 5. Ruan Nortje, 4. Lood de Jager, 3. Wilco Louw, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Ox Nché
Replacements: 16. Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17. Gerhard Steenekamp, 18. Thomas du Toit, 19. Franco Mostert, 20. Cameron Hanekom, 21. Paul de Villiers, 22. Cobus Reinach, 23. Manie Libbok
Head to head
South Africa have the upper hand in the head to head, leading it four games to one over the last five encounters. However, these five matches stretch all the way back to 2017, when both sides fielded very different teams.
The sides met last year in a friendly in France, where South Africa managed to bag a solid 32-17 win on foreign soil, despite an early red card.
The previous meeting between the sides was the infamous 2023 Rugby World Cup quarter-final, where South Africa won the match 29-28 in France.
Rugby Handicap & Total Points Refund
Lose your qualifying rugby handicap or total-points bet by just half a point and World Sports Betting will refund your stake in World Coins, up to a maximum of R5,000.
The promotion applies to pre-match single bets placed on rugby union and rugby league handicap and total-points markets, including first-half handicaps and first-half total points. Live bets and free bets do not qualify.
To claim your refund, email promotions@wsb.co.za with the subject line “Rugby Refund” within 24 hours of the match finishing.
Only one qualifying refund is permitted per account. Accounts must be verified and in good standing. Full terms and conditions apply.
Betting and Verdict
South Africa are at 1.40, France at 3.60 and the draw at 23.00.
The handicap is South Africa -8.5 at the time of writing.
Selections
We are going with France on the handicap. Although South Africa have been strong all year, there have been a few slip-ups, including the first Test defeat to New Zealand and the 42-38 loss to Australia, and coming up against an in-form French side who are looking for revenge is not going to be easy.
France have won their last three games after the opening loss to New Zealand, scoring 42, 42 and 54 points, and they have the star power of Antoine Dupont at 10. We do think South Africa have what it takes to win the game, but we don’t think they will beat France by more than a try, and so we like France at +8.5.
Suggested bet: Handicap, France [+8.5] at 1.87.
We are also going with the under 59.5 total points. The last five meetings between the sides have seen totals of 49, 57, 56, 55 and 35, which means all five have finished inside this line. The two most recent meetings, a 29-28 quarter-final and a 32-17 friendly, produced 57 and 49 points. Paris is looking cold and the kick-off is late, and in a game this important to both sides we expect a tight, physical contest rather than a shoot-out. We like the unders at 1.91.
Suggested bet: Total points under 59.5 at 1.91.
Click here for all betting on France v South Africa match
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
T&Cs apply. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
