South Africa and Australia meet in the deciding Test of their three-match series at Newlands on Tuesday, 27 October. The Proteas bounced back from defeat in Durban with an innings victory in Gqeberha, leaving the series level at 1–1. We take a look at the decider from a betting angle, with three player market bets selected.
Second Test review
South Africa won by an innings and 31 runs despite rain disrupting much of the opening two days. Temba Bavuma’s 179 led a remarkable recovery from 110/6 to 425/9 declared, with Marco Jansen contributing 85 and Simon Harmer 82. Scott Boland was Australia’s leading bowler with 5/81.
Jansen then took 5/33 as Australia were dismissed for 99 and asked to follow on. Travis Head’s 121 kept the visitors in the contest, but their second innings ended on 295. Kagiso Rabada took 4/77 and Wiaan Mulder 3/64 as the Proteas completed a memorable comeback.
South Africa at Newlands
South Africa have won three and lost two of their last five Tests at Newlands, most recently beating Pakistan by ten wickets in January 2025. They have alternated wins and losses across those five matches, so the recent record is positive without suggesting the ground is an automatic home banker.
Head to head at Newlands
Australia lead the all-time Test record at Newlands with ten wins to South Africa’s four from 14 meetings, with no draws. Since South Africa’s readmission, the visitors hold a narrower 4–3 advantage. However, the Proteas have won three of the last four clashes here: by an innings and 20 runs in 2009, eight wickets in 2011 and 322 runs in 2018. Australia won the 2014 meeting by 245 runs.
Team news
South Africa must replace Anrich Nortje, who has been ruled out with a groin injury. Australia have Cameron Green available again as a batting option, while a possible recall for Nathan Lyon leaves Boland’s place uncertain, despite his heroics in the SA innings in the 2nd test. The final teams will therefore be important, particularly for our Australian bowling selection below.
Weather over the five days
The Cape Town forecast checked on 25 October is encouraging, with no rain currently predicted during the scheduled five days. Tuesday looks partly cloudy at around 20°C, followed by a cloudier Wednesday near 23°C. Thursday should reach 24°C with scattered cloud, while Friday is also forecast at around 24°C with afternoon cloud. Saturday looks warmer at approximately 27°C, although still mostly cloudy.
That currently points towards plenty of playing time and gives me little reason to support a weather-driven draw. Forecasts can change, and conditions at Newlands should be checked again closer to the start.
Match betting
Click here to bet on South Africa vs Australia.
South Africa 1.93
Draw 10.00
Australia 2.30
Selections
I’m backing South Africa to carry their momentum from Gqeberha into the decider and win at 1.93. Rabada’s return has strengthened the attack considerably, while Jansen’s ability to extract bounce gives Australia’s vulnerable batting line-up another difficult challenge.
Bavuma’s superb century was crucial to levelling the series, but the contributions from Jansen and Harmer also demonstrated the value of South Africa’s batting depth. The Proteas have won three of their last four Tests against Australia at Newlands, adding to their appeal on home soil.
South Africa still need more from their top order, and Australia are capable of responding strongly. However, with Rabada and Jansen leading the attack, I give the hosts the edge to take the series.
Suggested bet: South Africa to win the third Test at 1.93
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Temba Bavuma was outstanding under pressure in Gqeberha. His 179 was built on patience and sound judgement, and South Africa may again need him to settle the innings if the top order struggles. He is the favourite in this market, but at 5.00 I am happy to stick with the captain to lead South Africa’s first-innings scoring.
Suggested bet: Temba Bavuma – top South African first-innings batsman at 5.00.
Scott Boland’s 5/81 in the second Test included four of South Africa’s top six. His accuracy and ability to keep asking questions around off stump make him an appealing option at Newlands. However, Nathan Lyon could return, so this selection is conditional on Boland being named in the starting XI. If he plays, I like his chances of leading Australia’s wicket tally in South Africa’s first innings.
Suggested bet: Scott Boland – top Australian first-innings wicket-taker at 3.50, if selected.
Kagiso Rabada completes my selections. He has taken 52 Test wickets at Newlands and at least three wickets in five of his last six bowling innings at the ground. His 4/77 in Australia’s second innings in Gqeberha was an encouraging return, and his pace and ability to strike with the new ball should keep Australia’s top order under pressure. Jansen is an obvious danger in this market, but at the same price of 3.25 I prefer Rabada’s strong record at this venue.
Suggested bet: Kagiso Rabada – top South African first-innings wicket-taker at 3.25.
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
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