Monday, 5 October, sees both Group 1 fixtures take centre stage in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, with France hosting Belgium and Italy welcoming Türkiye. France lead Belgium by a single point at the top of the group, while Italy will look to close the gap to second place against a Türkiye side still searching for their first point. We take a closer look at both matches from a betting perspective.
France vs Belgium – click here to bet
France began their campaign with successive 1-0 away victories against Turkiye and Belgium before drawing 1-1 at home to Italy on Friday. They remain unbeaten at the top of Group 1 with seven points, although their latest result allowed Belgium to move within a point.
After a goalless opening half against Italy, Michael Olise broke the deadlock in the 55th minute to put France ahead and on course for a third consecutive victory.
Their advantage lasted just 13 minutes, however, as Italy equalised in the 68th minute. France were unable to restore their lead, dropping points for the first time in the campaign and conceding their first goal.
Belgium have collected six points from their opening three matches, beating Italy 2-0 away before losing 1-0 at home to France. They responded to that setback with a convincing 3-0 home victory against Turkiye on Friday.
Kevin De Bruyne gave Belgium an early lead in the 10th minute against Turkiye, with that goal separating the sides at half time.
De Bruyne struck again in the 59th minute to give the hosts breathing room before Romelu Lukaku added a third in the 76th. The result secured Belgium’s second clean sheet of the campaign and leaves them with an opportunity to overtake France with an away victory.
Head-to-Head
France have won all six of the last meetings between the nations, including their 1-0 away victory in the competition last Monday.
The French also completed the double over Belgium in the 2024/25 Nations League, winning 2-0 at home and 2-1 away.
Match Odds (1X2)
France 1.56
Draw 4.75
Belgium 5.50
Verdict
France have been solid defensively, conceding just once across their opening three matches and their recent record against Belgium provides further encouragement. The visitors arrive after a comfortable win over Turkiye and have already beaten Italy away so this should be a competitive contest. However, France have consistently found a way past Belgium and I am backing home advantage to help them return to winning ways in a low scoring affair.
BET: Match Result and Totals – France and Under 3.5 at 2.70
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Italy vs Turkiye – click here to bet
Italy have recovered from their opening 2-0 home defeat against Belgium by taking four points from two away fixtures. They beat Turkiye 4-1 before holding France to a 1-1 draw on Friday, leaving them third in Group 1 with four points.
The Italians reached half time level in France but fell behind in the 55th minute, leaving them needing a response against opponents who had yet to concede in the competition.
Alessandro Bastoni provided that response in the 68th minute, scoring the equaliser to bring Italy back into the contest. They held on for a point to extend their unbeaten run to two matches and now return home looking for their second victory.
Turkiye have endured a difficult start, losing all three matches to sit bottom of Group 1 without a point. A 1-0 home defeat against France was followed by a 4-1 loss to Italy and a 3-0 reverse away to Belgium on Friday.
The Turkish side conceded in the 10th minute against Belgium but kept the deficit to a single goal heading into the interval.
Their hopes of recovering faded when Belgium doubled their advantage in the 59th minute before adding a third in the 76th. Turkiye were unable to find a reply and have now conceded eight goals while scoring just once across their opening three fixtures.
Head-to-Head
Italy are unbeaten across the last six meetings between the nations, recording three victories and three draws.
Their most recent encounter ended in a 4-1 away win for Italy last Monday. The Italians also won 3-2 in a friendly in 2022 and 3-0 at the Euro 2020, while their 2024 friendly finished goalless.
Match Odds (1X2)
Italy 1.47
Draw 5.25
Turkiye 6.50
Verdict
Italy should take confidence from earning a point in France, particularly after their convincing victory in Turkiye. The visitors have struggled at both ends of the pitch and conceded seven goals across their last two outings. Italy have already shown they can create problems for this defence and I am backing them to complete the double with a home victory while keeping a clean sheet.
BET: Match Result and Both Teams to Score – Italy and No at 2.80
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
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