South Africa begin their qualification campaign for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations when they host Guinea at the Orlando Stadium, and we take a closer look at the match from a betting angle.
AFCON Qualification Group D
South Africa and Guinea have been drawn in Group D alongside Kenya and Eritrea.
Kenya qualify automatically as one of the tournament’s three co-hosts. This means only the highest-placed team other than Kenya will qualify from Group D, making the two matches between South Africa and Guinea particularly important.
The other opening fixture in the group sees Kenya host Eritrea, while South Africa will face Eritrea in their second qualifier and Guinea will host Kenya.
South Africa
The match marks the beginning of another spell in charge of South Africa for Pitso Mosimane, who has retained much of the squad that competed at the 2026 FIFA World Cup while also introducing several uncapped players.
South Africa reached the knockout stages of the World Cup but were not particularly prolific, scoring only twice in their four matches. They will also be without a few attacking options for this fixture, with Lyle Foster and Evidence Makgopa not included in the squad.
Home advantage should count in South Africa’s favour, but their recent scoring record suggests that they may need to remain patient against a competitive Guinea team.
Guinea
Guinea will arrive in South Africa with a genuine attacking threat in Borussia Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy, who scored six goals during the qualification campaign for the previous Africa Cup of Nations.
Their squad also includes former Barcelona midfielder Ilaix Moriba, although several experienced players, including Naby Keïta, are absent.
Guinea have experienced mixed results recently. Their last five matches include victories over Liberia and Mozambique, a draw with Botswana and defeats to Benin and Northern Ireland.
Head-to-Head
South Africa won the most recent meeting between the sides, beating Guinea 2-1 in the African Nations Championship in August 2025.
Before that, the teams played out a goalless draw in a friendly in March 2022, while Guinea recorded a 2-0 victory when they met at the Africa Cup of Nations in January 2006.
Two of the last three encounters produced fewer than 2.5 goals.
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Betting – Click Here to Bet
South Africa 1.91
Draw 3.15
Guinea 4.50
Verdict
South Africa deserve to start as favourites at home, but this is unlikely to be a straightforward assignment.
With Kenya already assured of a place at the finals, South Africa and Guinea are effectively competing for the group’s only remaining qualification position. That should make both sides cautious in an important opening fixture.
South Africa have struggled for goals recently, while five of the six previous meetings between the countries have produced fewer than three goals. Guinea possess a major threat in Guirassy, but South Africa should have enough quality and home-ground advantage to edge a tight contest.
The straight South Africa win at 1.91 is worth considering, but combining the home victory with under 3.5 goals improves the price to a more attractive 2.20.
BET: South Africa to Win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2.20
Other Betting Options
- South Africa to win at 1.91
- South Africa to win and both teams to score – No at 2.70
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
