South Africa head to Buenos Aires this Saturday for a one-off Test against Argentina in what promises to be a hugely entertaining International window opener and we take a look at the match from a betting angle.
This is South Africa’s only match before the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour against New Zealand kicks off later this month, and Rassie Erasmus will be looking to use it as a vital tune-up before the All Blacks arrive on South African soil. Argentina, meanwhile, will use this Test as the first of an important August window that will also see them travel to face the USA and Australia over the coming weeks. It should be a physical, high-quality contest between two of the top-ranked sides in World rugby.
Argentina
Argentina played three matches at home during the Nations Championship. Their first was against Scotland, where they lost the match 47-38 in a thriller of a game. Their second saw them bounce back strongly against Wales, delivering a solid 35-21 win, however, they were not able to continue that momentum into their third game against England, going on to lose 31-24. Two losses from three was disappointing on paper, but there were plenty of positive signs from Los Pumas across the window, particularly in the way they were able to move the ball and score tries in every fixture.
Argentina will have 4 debutants take the field on Saturday.
Starting XV: 15 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 14 Rodrigo Isgró, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Faustino Sánchez Valarolo, 11 Ignacio Mendy, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Simón Benítez Cruz, 8 Joaquín Moro, 7 Benjamín Grondona, 6 Pablo Matera (captain), 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Moreno, 2 Ignacio Ruiz, 1 Boris Wenger.
Replacements: 16 Leonel Oviedo, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Tomás Rapetti, 19 Efraín Elías, 20 Juan Penoucos, 21 Juan Martín Scelzo, 22 Agustín Moyano, 23 Matías Moroni.
South Africa
South Africa had a perfect Nations Championship, winning all three of their fixtures. They beat England 45-21, followed that up with a 42-28 win over Scotland and finished it off with a 43-0 hammering of Wales in the final match. This now puts them on a 12-game winning streak, a run that includes the win over the Barbarians earlier this year.
A number of experienced players return for South Africa this weekend, with Siya Kolisi and Eben Etzebeth both back in the starting side to bring their vast Test experience into the pack. Two youngsters, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Ethan Hooker, also return after picking up injuries earlier in the year, and both bring some real excitement back into the backline. Feinberg-Mngomezulu in particular has been mightily impressive over his short International career and gets the nod at flyhalf ahead of the veteran Handre Pollard, who drops to the bench. Handre’s presence on the bench, however, remains a huge asset for the closing stages of any Test match.
Starting XV: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Cameron Hanekom, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Boan Venter
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Cobus Wiese, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Handre Pollard
Head-to-Head
South Africa have won four of the last five matches against Argentina. The one win that went Argentina’s way in that stretch was back in 2024, when they won 29-28 at home. The two sides met once in Argentina in last year’s Rugby Championship, with the score ending 29-27 in favour of South Africa. So, while South Africa clearly have the edge in the H2H, matches between these two in Argentina have consistently been much closer than the market or ranking gap suggests.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa are heavy favourites and are trading at 1.10 while Argentina are out at 8.50. The draw is currently at 41.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -18.5.
South Africa have looked like the best team in the World for the last few years, and the scary thing for everyone else is they don’t look like slowing down any time soon. We definitely think they will win this weekend, however, playing at home in rugby always brings an advantage, and that is especially true for a proud country like Argentina in front of their vocal home crowd in Buenos Aires. In the last five matches between the sides in Argentina, South Africa have only been able to cover the -18.5 handicap once, back in 2021. The other four matches saw them win by much smaller margins, with Argentina always finding a way to keep it competitive at home. Add in the fact that this is South Africa’s first Test since the Nations Championship and the first outing for a couple of returning stars, and there is every chance we see some early rust from the visitors. For all those reasons, we think the -18.5 handicap won’t be covered by South Africa this weekend.
Suggested bet: Handicap, Argentina [+18.5] at 1.91.
Although we should expect the two sides to score plenty of points between them, the bookies have under 60.5 Total Points on offer at 1.91, and there is real value in taking the under here. If the game was being played in South Africa, we think it would be a different story, however, there have been less than 60 total points scored between the two sides in each of the last seven matches played in Argentina. That is a very consistent trend that lines up nicely with South Africa’s recent tendency to grind out slightly tighter wins here, and we like the unders to land again this weekend.
Suggested bet: Total Points under 60.5 at 1.91.
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
