The Golden Boot goes to the player who scores the most goals during the FIFA World Cup, and in this preview we look at some of the leading contenders and single out an outside to give us a run for our money at 26.00.
Recent Golden Boot Winners
- 2006: Miroslav Klose (Germany) – five goals
- 2010: Thomas Muller (Germany) – five goals
- 2014: James Rodríguez (Colombia) – six goals
- 2018: Harry Kane (England) – six goals
- 2022: Kylian Mbappé (France) – eight goals
You have to go back to 1970 to find a Golden Boot winner scoring more than eight goals. This year, both Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé are attempting to become the first player to win the award twice.
The Contenders
Harry Kane (England) – 8.00
Kane won the Golden Boot in Russia in 2018 and has enjoyed another outstanding season for Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals in 51 matches. He remains one of the most clinical finishers in world football and also shared the Golden Boot at Euro 2024.
If England make a deep run in the tournament, Kane is almost certain to be among the leading scorers once again.
Kylian Mbappé (France) – 6.50
The 2022 Golden Boot winner has continued his excellent form with Real Madrid, scoring 42 goals in 44 matches. His explosive pace makes him a constant threat, particularly against tiring defences.
France are expected to go deep into the competition and Mbappé deserves his place at the top of the betting.
Erling Haaland (Norway) – 15.00
The Manchester City striker finished as the Premier League’s top scorer for the third time this season, netting 27 goals in 35 matches.
The question for Haaland is whether Norway can advance far enough in the tournament to give him the number of matches usually required to win the Golden Boot.
Lionel Messi (Argentina) – 13.00
Messi finally lifted the World Cup in 2022, although he has never won the Golden Boot award.
At 38 years old, there are doubts over how heavily he will be used throughout the tournament, and Argentina may choose to manage his minutes carefully during the early stages.
Vinícius Jr. (Brazil) – 26.00
Brazil’s attacking threat once again looks strong, and Vinícius Jr. could be one of the players to benefit from that.
His pace and ability to attack defenders one-on-one make him a dangerous outsider in this market.
Selections
It is difficult to argue strongly against the two favourites in the market, and if pushed, Mbappé would probably be the standout option among the leading contenders.
However, there is another angle that could prove interesting. Argentina look capable of scoring heavily, particularly in the group stages, and if Messi is managed carefully, another Argentine forward may emerge as value.
That brings Julián Álvarez firmly into the picture.
Álvarez scored 20 goals in 49 matches for Atlético Madrid this season and also found the net 10 times in 15 Champions League appearances. If Argentina enjoy the kind of attacking tournament many expect, he could offer strong value at 26.00.
Bet: Julián Álvarez Golden Boot at 26.00
Golden Boot Winning Goals Market
One of the more interesting competition specials markets is the number of goals required to win the Golden Boot.
As mentioned earlier, it has been decades since a player needed more than eight goals to claim the award. However, there are reasons to believe that could change in 2026.
Firstly, the expanded format means the eventual winner will play an additional match. Secondly, the inclusion of 16 extra teams could create some very one-sided group-stage fixtures, giving the elite forwards opportunities to boost their goal tallies early in the tournament.
Bet: Golden Boot Winning Goals – Over 8.5 at 2.90
Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
