We head into the first round of knockouts this weekend in the Super Rugby Pacific Finals series and in this preview we look at the betting and offer up a bet for your consideration.
Format
The format is a little different to the usual quarter, semi and final structure seen in other rugby tournaments. The top six teams from the regular season enter a playoff: this weekend’s qualifying finals see 1 v 6, 2 v 5 and 3 v 4 with the top-ranked side hosting each tie. From there, the three qualifying-final winners are joined by the highest-ranked losing team to make up the semi-finals, before the top-ranked semi-final winner hosts the showpiece.
Super Rugby Pacific Winner — Click here to bet
The Hurricanes are the rightful favourites to lift the title at 2.25 after their dominant regular season at the top of the table. The Chiefs are tucked in behind them at 2.60, while the Crusaders sit a clear third in the market at 5.00. The Blues are out at 13.00, with the Brumbies and Reds further back at 34.00 and 41.00 respectively. The market is essentially screaming a Hurricanes-Chiefs final, with the gap to the rest of the field looking decisive.
Hurricanes 2.25
Chiefs 2.60
Crusaders 5.00
Blues 13.00
Brumbies 34.00
Reds 41.00
FRIDAY
Hurricanes v Brumbies — Click here to bet
The Hurricanes finished top of the table after winning 11 of their 14 matches and arrive at this qualifying final on the back of a defeat away to the Crusaders last weekend, although it is worth noting they fielded a heavily rotated side having already secured top spot.
The Brumbies snuck into the playoffs in 6th on the table after winning seven of their 14 games. Their last three results read: a shock 19-21 home loss to Moana Pasifika last weekend, a 14-21 away win over the Waratahs, and a 32-15 home demolition of the Western Force three weeks ago.
Head-to-Head
The Brumbies have actually had the upper hand in the head-to-head, winning three of the last five meetings against the Hurricanes. However, the last time the two sides met was a Hurricanes masterclass, with the Wellington side running out 45-12 winners at home earlier this season.
Betting and Verdict
The Hurricanes are at 1.08 while the Brumbies are out at 9.50 with the draw 46.00. The handicap is set at Hurricanes -18.5.
The Hurricanes have been devastating this season. In three of their last five they have won by 17 points or more, with their only slip-up being last weekend’s loss to the Crusaders. With a fully rested first-choice side back this weekend, I think they should be able to cover the handicap again, just as they did against the Brumbies earlier in the season.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Hurricanes [-18.5] at 1.95.
SATURDAY
Crusaders v Blues — Click here to bet
The Crusaders finished third after winning eight of their 14 matches and arrive at this qualifying final in red-hot form. Their last five results: a 47-14 home win over the Hurricanes last weekend, a 36-32 win over the Chiefs at home, a 36-20 home win over the Blues, a 38-31 defeat away to the Hurricanes, and a 35-20 home win over the Waratahs.
The Blues finished fourth on eight wins from 14 but come into this match off the back of three straight away defeats, 59-34 to the Chiefs, 24-47 to the Hurricanes and 36-20 to the Crusaders. Their last win came back at the start of May, 19-45 over Moana Pasifika.
Head-to-Head
The Crusaders have won four of the last five encounters between the sides, including the most recent 36-20 win at home. The Blues last win in this fixture came in March this year, 29-13 at home.
Betting and Verdict
The Crusaders are at 1.33 while the Blues are out at 3.65 with the draw 29.00. The handicap is set at Crusaders -8.5.
The Blues have been poor across their last three matches, while the Crusaders are arguably the form team of the competition. With those trajectories heading in opposite directions, I think the Crusaders will be able to cover the handicap comfortably.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Crusaders [-8.5] at 1.91
Chiefs v Reds – Click here to bet
The Chiefs finished 2nd on the log after winning 11 of their 14 matches. Their last five results read: a 59-34 home win over the Blues last weekend, a 36-32 defeat away to the Crusaders, a 42-12 home win over the Highlanders, a 21-31 win away to the Reds, and a 42-22 home win over the Drua.
The Reds finished fifth on eight wins from 14. Their last five results were a 45-24 home win over the Drua, a 33-31 away win over Moana Pasifika, a 19-14 away defeat to the Western Force, a 21-31 home loss to the Chiefs, and a 30-21 home win over the Brumbies.
Head-to-Head
The Chiefs have won four of the last five encounters between the sides, the most recent being a 21-31 win away from home. The last time the Chiefs hosted, they won 27-15, while the Reds last win in this fixture came back in 2024, 25-19 at home.
Betting and Verdict
The Chiefs are at 1.14, the Reds are out at 6.50 and the draw is at 41.00. The handicap is set at Chiefs -14.5.
The Chiefs have only covered a handicap this large in one of the last five meetings between the sides, so I think we are in for a much tighter contest than the bookies are predicting. With the Reds coming in off the back of two wins, the +14.5 looks generous from this side.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Reds [+14.5] at 1.93
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Super Rugby matches
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