Only two teams remain in the 2025/2026 Investec Champions Cup, and it shapes up as a genuine clash of the titans. Leinster take on Union Bordeaux in Bilbao on Saturday, with both sides chasing European glory on neutral soil in front of what promises to be a vibrant Basque Country crowd with plenty of travelling support. We take a look at the match from a betting angle and lay down a few suggested bets.
Leinster
Leinster arrive in Bilbao having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, with their only blemish a shock 29-26 defeat to Benetton in the URC away from home. They have since gone on a serious run, stringing together three straight victories: a 68-14 hammering of the Ospreys at home last weekend, a clinical 31-7 dismantling of the Lions at home the week before, and the 29-25 semi-final win over Toulonnais that booked their place in this final.
Leinster’s road to the final has been built on dominance and home-ground advantage. They got off to a strong start with a 49-31 win over Edinburgh at home in the round of 16, followed that up with a 43-13 demolition of Sale Sharks in the quarter-finals, and then ground out a 29-25 win over Toulonnais at home in the semis to seal their place in Bilbao.
Bordeaux
The defending champions arrive in Bilbao on the back of three solid wins. They beat USA Perpignan 37-32 at home, won 38-40 away to Aviron Bayonnais, and then produced an impressive 38-26 victory over Bath at home in the semi-finals. That run came after a sticky patch in which they lost 21-23 to Montpellier at home and were beaten 45-15 away by Stade Rochelais, so credit to them for finding their best rugby just when it mattered most.
Bordeaux’s road to the final has been equally impressive, also built on home-ground advantage. They opened their knockout campaign by hosting Leicester Tigers in the round of 16 and produced a stunning 64-14 hammering, followed that up with a 30-15 win over Stade Toulousain in the quarter-finals, and topped it all off with the 38-26 victory over Bath in the semis.
Head to head
Remarkably, the two sides last met all the way back in 1998, with Leinster running out 9-3 winners in a low-scoring affair. The two European giants have not crossed paths since, meaning Saturday’s final will be the first meeting between the clubs in 28 years.
Betting and Verdict
The bookies have Bordeaux as favourites going into this weekend, trading at 1.43 for the win while Leinster are out at 3.25. The draw is at 26.00, and the handicap is set at Bordeaux -7.5.
The Champions Cup final is almost always a tightly contested affair. In three of the last five finals the game has been decided by fewer than six points, with the other two settled by margins of just eight and nine. Both teams arrive in Bilbao in form and will undoubtedly serve up a spectacle, but it is hard to see either side running away with it on such a big occasion. I don’t think Bordeaux will be able to cover the handicap, and I expect a final scoreline separated by less than a converted try.
Suggested bet: Handicap, Leinster [+7.5] at 1.91
The Champions Cup final is such a big occasion for the European clubs that it is nearly treated like a Test match, and the scorelines tend to reflect that. In each of the last five finals the total points scored across the match has come in under 53. Leinster’s semi-final saw just 54 points scored across the 80 minutes, and while Bordeaux’s semi-final went over the line, Leinster are renowned for their defensive structure and that should keep the lid on the scoring once again. I think we are in for a tight, low-scoring final.
Suggested bet: Total points under 55.5 at 1.87
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
