We look at the EFL Cup Final taking place on Sunday the 22nd of March between Arsenal and Manchester City from a betting angle before settling on a play for the showpiece event at Wembley.
ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER CITY
Arsenal come into the final in excellent form in this competition, having navigated their way past Chelsea over two legs in the semi-finals with a 3-2 away win followed by a 1-0 home victory. Prior to that they accounted for Crystal Palace, Brighton and Port Vale, scoring freely while only conceding a single goal.
More broadly, Arsenal have shown in recent meetings with Manchester City that they are not overawed by this opponent. They are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head clashes, including a dominant 5-1 victory earlier in 2025. Their ability to press high and create chances against elite opposition has been a key feature of their recent progress.
Manchester City’s route to the final has been equally impressive and typically professional. They dispatched Newcastle home and away in the semi-finals, winning 3-1 and 2-0, and comfortably handled Brentford, Swansea and Huddersfield in earlier rounds, also conceding just a single goal.
City remain one of the most reliable cup teams in England and their experience in finals is a major asset. Between 2018 and 2021 they won four consecutive EFL Cup titles and have consistently shown an ability to control big matches, particularly at Wembley. Their approach in these fixtures is often more measured, prioritising structure and control over expansive play.
Head-to-Head
The longer-term head-to-head favours Manchester City heavily, but recent meetings have swung in Arsenal’s favour.
- Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City (2025)
- Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City (2025)
- Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal (2024)
- Manchester City 0-0 Arsenal (2024)
- Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City (2023)
Arsenal are unbeaten in the last five encounters, a significant shift from previous seasons where City dominated this fixture and won 8 in a row up until 2023.
EFL Cup Final Trends (Last 10 Years)
Looking at recent finals, there are some clear patterns:
- 4 of the last 10 finals went beyond 90 minutes
- 6 of the last 10 finals produced 2 goals or fewer in regulation time
- Manchester City have won 4 of the last 8 finals but have not featured in the final since their win in 2021
- Arsenal lost to City in the 2018 final there only final appearance of the last 10 years
Despite the presence of attacking talent, these finals tend to be tight, tactical affairs.
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Betting – Click here to bet
Arsenal 2.40
Draw 3.25
Manchester City 3.00
Verdict
This is a fascinating final with conflicting signals. Arsenal’s recent dominance in the head-to-head and the fact that they are a short price to win the EPL, suggests they are rightly favourites, but Manchester City’s experience and composure in cup finals cannot be ignored.
The historical trend of low-scoring EFL Cup finals is particularly strong and suggests this could be a more cautious affair than recent league meetings between the sides.
I am expecting a tight and tactical contest where clear-cut chances may be limited, especially early on. City’s ability to manage these occasions could see them edge things, but it would be no surprise if this is level after 90 minutes.
Some betting angles I like here include:
- Under 2.5 Goals at 1.83
- Draw (90 minutes) at 3.25
- Manchester City Draw No Bet at 2.15
- Correct Score 1-1 at 6.75
BET: The draw (90 Minutes) at 3.25
Note: All prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
