New Zealand take a 2–1 lead into the fourth T20I in Wellington after a composed win in Auckland, leaving South Africa needing a victory here to keep the series alive.
The market continues to favour the hosts, with New Zealand priced at 1.65 and South Africa at 2.25.
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New Zealand 1.65
South Africa 2.25
The slightly bigger price about the hosts can be explained by the fact that Conway, Santner and Ferguson are all being rested for the last 2 matches.
Series so far
South Africa claimed the opening match comfortably, bowling New Zealand out cheaply and chasing with ease. However, the momentum has shifted firmly since then.
In Hamilton, New Zealand bounced back with a dominant 68-run win, powered by Devon Conway’s half-century and a strong all-round bowling performance.
That momentum carried into Auckland where New Zealand produced another controlled display. South Africa were restricted to 136/9, with wickets falling regularly and no batter able to play a defining innings. While Nqobani Mokoena (26*) and George Linde (23) added some late runs, the total always looked below par.
New Zealand’s chase was clinical. A strong opening stand set the tone before Tom Latham anchored the innings with an unbeaten 63, guiding the hosts to 137/2 with plenty in hand.
The key theme again was control with the ball. New Zealand’s attack shared the wickets, with Ferguson, Sears and Santner all making important contributions, ensuring South Africa never built sustained pressure.
What to expect in Wellington
New Zealand now look the more settled side in both departments. Their batting has found structure, with Conway (who sits this one out) providing starts and Latham anchoring, while the lower order offers acceleration when needed.
Their bowling unit has also been consistently effective, applying pressure through all phases of the innings and taking wickets at regular intervals.
South Africa, by contrast, continue to struggle for consistency with the bat. Starts have not been converted and partnerships have been hard to come by, placing increased pressure on their bowling attack.
That said, the Proteas still have the tools to compete. Their seam attack remains capable of making early breakthroughs and if they can put New Zealand under pressure upfront, they are more than capable of turning the contest, especially with the Black Caps opting to rest key players.
Suggested Bets
Bet 1 – South Africa to win at 2.25
They have been outplayed in the 2nd and 3rd T20’s but the 3 players New Zealand are resting are all key and that could give South Africa the opportunity to send the series to a decider.
Bet 2 – Top New Zealand Batter: Tom Latham at 3.75
Latham has taken on a key role in stabilising the innings and was outstanding in Auckland with an unbeaten 63. His ability to anchor while others play around him makes him a strong contender again.
Bet 3 – Top South Africa Bowler: Ottneil Baartman at 3.85
Baartman has been one of South Africa’s more reliable bowlers across the series, combining control with wicket-taking ability. If the Proteas are to challenge in Wellington, he is likely to be central to any success with the ball and he was certainly missed in Auckland.
Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
