We arrive at the final round of this year’s Six Nations with the title not yet decided. France suffered a stunning 50–40 defeat to Scotland in Edinburgh last weekend, a result that has given others chances heading into a winner-take-all Saturday. We preview all three matches and suggest a few bets.
Outright Betting – click here to bet
France are 1.20 with Ireland 8.00 and Scotland 9.00
After four rounds, the standings make for fascinating reading. France and Scotland are level at the top on 16 points, with France ahead on points difference (+79 vs +21). Ireland sit two points back on 14, Italy are fourth on 9, England fifth on 6, and Wales remain on 1.
For France to win the Championship, they simply need to beat England. A win seals the title regardless of other results. For Scotland to be champions, they must beat Ireland and hope France fail to beat England. For Ireland, they must beat Scotland and rely on England to topple France. It sets up one of the most compelling final-day scenarios in recent Six Nations history.
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SATURDAY
Ireland v Scotland – Click here to bet
Ireland arrive in Dublin having won three of their four Championship matches. Their only defeat was a 36–14 loss to France on the opening weekend, and since then they have been in outstanding form, beating Italy 20–13 at home, dominating England 42–21 in London, and last weekend grinding out a solid 27–17 home win over Wales. They are experienced, well-organised, and the Aviva Stadium crowd will be fully behind them with a title on the line.
Scotland have been the revelation of this tournament. After an opening defeat to Italy, they produced three consecutive victories, a Calcutta Cup win over England 31–20, a gritty 26–23 triumph away at Wales, and then last weekend’s extraordinary 50–40 demolition of France in Edinburgh. That result was one of the performances of the championship era and has put Gregor Townsend’s side with the chance of a historic title.
Head-to-Head
Ireland have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning four of the last five meetings. They won 32–18 away in Edinburgh in February 2025, 17–13 in Dublin in 2024, and claimed a 36–14 World Cup win in 2023. Scotland’s last championship win in this fixture dates back several years and Ireland have been consistently comfortable in it.
Betting
Ireland are favourites at 1.49, with Scotland at 3.00. The draw is at 22.00.
Handicap: Ireland [−5.5]
Verdict
This is the match of the round and arguably the highest-stakes fixture in recent Six Nations history. Both sides are in excellent form with everything to play for. The H2H record strongly favours Ireland and the home crowd at the Aviva Stadium will be electric. Scotland are riding a wave of momentum after the France result, but facing Ireland in Dublin, fresh and well-rested, is an entirely different proposition to Murrayfield. The 5.5-point handicap reflects the home advantage and H2H superiority accurately. Back Ireland to do the job and cover.
Suggested bet: Handicap, Ireland [−5.5] at 1.91.
Wales v Italy – Click here to bet
Wales have endured a wretched campaign and arrive at the final round last in the standings on only 1 point, thanks to receiving a losing bonus point in their match against Scotland as they only lost by 3 points. Their losses read brutally: 48–7 away to England, 54–12 at home to France, 23–26 at home to Scotland, and 17–27 away to Ireland last weekend.
The scale of their recent defeats extends far beyond this tour namely, 73–0 hammering by South Africa and a 52–26 loss to New Zealand sit in recent memory.
Italy, by contrast, are having one of their finest Six Nations campaigns in years. They beat Scotland 18–15 on the opening weekend, lost narrowly to Ireland 13–20 and France 8–33, both respectable away defeats, and then last weekend produced an excellent 23–18 home win over England in Rome. Italy are now a genuinely competitive side, capable of beating anyone on their day, and they travel to Cardiff with real belief.
Head-to-Head
The recent H2H record tells the story of Italy’s transformation. Italy won 22–15 in Rome in February 2025 and won 24–21 away in Cardiff in 2024, beating Wales on their own patch. Italy have won three of the last five Six Nations meetings and the dynamic in this fixture has clearly shifted in their favour.
Betting
Italy are favourites at 1.61, with Wales at 2.60. The draw is at 23.00.
Handicap: Wales (+3.5)
Verdict
Italy are rightly favoured. They have beaten Wales in Cardiff already, they are in better form, and their recent H2H record is stronger. Italy to win and cover a small handicap is the play here and I am also tempted by the over 45.5 points on offer.
Suggested bet: Handicap, Italy [−3.5] at 1.91.
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France v England – Click here to bet
France suffered their first defeat of the tournament last Saturday when Scotland ran riot at Murrayfield, winning 50–40 in a breathtaking encounter. It was a shattering result for Fabien Galthié’s side, particularly given they had been the tournament’s dominant force, winning their previous three games and beating Ireland, Wales, and Italy in commanding fashion. They arrive at the Stade de France knowing their fate is in their own hands.
England have had a difficult tournament. An impressive 48–7 win over Wales in Round 1 raised expectations, but they have since lost three consecutive matches, 20–31 to Scotland, 21–42 to Ireland in London, and last weekend 18–23 in Rome to Italy. Steve Borthwick’s side will have nothing to lose in Paris, which can make them dangerous, but the task of winning at the Stade de France with the Championship on the line for the hosts is an enormous one.
Head-to-Head
The recent H2H record has been remarkably close. England won a narrow 26–25 match in London in February 2025. The 2024 Six Nations clash in Paris saw France win 33–31 in a thriller. Further back, France won 53–10 in Paris in 2023 and England won 23–20 in Paris in 2021. Home advantage has been significant and Paris is not a place England tend to get results.
Betting
France are strong favourites at 1.14, with England at 6.75. The draw is at 41.00.
Handicap: France [−16.5]
Verdict
France at the Stade de France with the Championship on the line is a formidable proposition, and they will be stung and desperate after the Scotland result. However, 16.5 points is a substantial line to give England, who have a decent recent record in Paris. England are a better side than their results suggest this tournament and will not simply cave in. France to win looks likely, but covering a 16.5-point handicap feels like too large a margin and I will back England to keep the deficit under 17.
Suggested bet: Handicap, England [+16.5] at 1.87.
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Six Nations matches
Note all prices correct at time of posting but subject to change.
