Round 5 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season gets underway with five matches across Friday, Saturday and Sunday. We take a look at each fixture from a betting angle and offer up a bet for consideration in each game.
FRIDAY
Hurricanes v Western Force – Click here to bet
The Hurricanes are in solid form heading into this home clash. Last week they travelled to Sydney and dismantled the Waratahs 59–19, a result that underlined their status as one of the competition’s most dangerous outfits. Their only stumble this season came in Round 3, when they lost 25–20 away to the Fijian Drua in Lautoka, a difficult venue for any visiting side.
The Western Force arrive after a 39–31 away defeat to the Highlanders in Dunedin last weekend. They had shown promise with an away win over Moana Pasifika the week prior, but conceding 39 points in New Zealand exposed their defensive frailties. A trip to Wellington to face the Hurricanes offers little reprieve.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record strongly favours the Hurricanes. Their most recent Super Rugby meeting ended 17–17 in April 2025, but before that the Hurricanes had won convincingly, 44–14 in February 2024 and 45–42 in 2023.
Betting
The Hurricanes are overwhelming favourites at 1.06, with the Western Force at 11.00. The draw is at 56.00.
Handicap: Hurricanes [−21.5]
Verdict
The Hurricanes are at full tilt and playing at home. The Force’s defence has been poor this season and Wellington is a fortress. The handicap is large, but the Hurricanes have the firepower to cover it.
Suggested Bet: Hurricanes [−21.5] at 1.95.
SATURDAY
Fijian Drua v Brumbies – Click here to bet
The Fijian Drua are a genuine threat at home after their stunning 25–20 win over the Hurricanes in Lautoka in Round 3. Prior to that they had lost away to the Waratahs 36–13 and they looked rusty in an opening home loss to Pasifika.
The Brumbies suffered a surprise home defeat last week, going down 34–31 to the Reds at GIO Stadium. Before that they had been the form side of the competition, beating the Blues 30–27 at home, the Crusaders 50–24 away in Christchurch, and the Western Force 56–24 away. The loss to the Reds was their first of the season and they will be determined to respond.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record heavily favours the Brumbies, who have won all five of their most recent meetings with the Drua. That includes a 38–21 win in Canberra in March 2025, a 36–32 away win in Lautoka in February 2025, and a 28–20 win in Canberra in 2024.
Betting
The Brumbies are favourites at 1.63, with the Fijian Drua at 2.50. The draw is at 23.00.
Handicap: Fijian Drua [+2.5]
Verdict
The Drua at home are a different proposition and their recent result against the Hurricanes proves they can beat top sides on their day. However, the Brumbies’ H2H dominance is hard to ignore and I am going to rather focus on the points line where I think under 58.5 is the play in hot and potentially humid conditions.
Suggested Bet: Total Points under 58.5 at 1.91
Crusaders v Highlanders – Click here to bet
The Crusaders have been inconsistent this season. They produced their best result of the campaign in Round 3, winning 43–33 away at the Chiefs, but last week they were well beaten 29–13 away by the Blues in Auckland. Their home record is also mixed, they lost 24–50 to the Brumbies at home in Round 2 and were edged 25–23 by the Highlanders in Dunedin in Round 1.
The Highlanders had a fine home win last weekend, accounting for the Western Force 39–31 in Dunedin. Before that they had lost 31–14 away to the Reds in Brisbane. Their form is patchy, but they arrive with confidence after that bounce-back result and will recall they beat the Crusaders at home in Round 1.
Head-to-Head
The Highlanders got the better of the Crusaders in this season’s first meeting, winning 25–23 in Dunedin. The longer H2H record is more mixed: the Crusaders won 15–12 at home in May 2025, but the Highlanders won 32–29 in Dunedin in 2024. This is a genuine rivalry.
Betting
The Crusaders are favourites at 1.31, with the Highlanders at 4.00. The draw is at 29.00.
Handicap: Highlanders [+9.5]
Verdict
The Crusaders’ home form has been far from convincing, and the Highlanders have already beaten them this season. A 9.5-point start feels generous for a side that has shown they can go toe-to-toe with the Crusaders and I think the Highlanders represent decent value on the handicap.
Suggested Bet: Highlanders [+9.5] at 1.91.
Reds v Waratahs – Click here to bet
The Reds are in excellent form heading into this Queensland derby. Last week they produced a statement result, winning 34–31 away at the Brumbies in Canberra. They had also beaten the Highlanders 31–14 at home in Round 3. Their only blemish was a 36–12 away defeat to the Waratahs in Round 1, which makes this a fixture with clear revenge motivation.
The Waratahs were riding high after their Round 1 and Round 2 wins, but were brought crashing back to earth last weekend, losing 59–19 at home to the Hurricanes in Sydney. That was a bruising result, and they now travel to Brisbane to face a Reds side in confident form. Recovery from a hammering of that magnitude in one week is a significant ask.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely contested. The Waratahs won the most recent Super Rugby meeting 36–12 in Sydney in Round 1 this season, but the Reds have also won away at the Waratahs, 28–21 in May 2025 and 27–26 in 2024. This fixture tends to be decided by home advantage and current form.
Betting
The Reds are favourites at 1.38, with the Waratahs at 3.40. The draw is at 29.00.
Handicap: Reds [−7.5]
Verdict
The Reds are at home and in form after a memorable away win in Canberra. The Waratahs are coming off a 40-point hammering and travel interstate. The Reds should win this comfortably.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Reds [-7.5] at 1.87.
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SUNDAY
Blues v Moana Pasifika – Click here to bet
The Blues bounced back strongly last weekend, beating the Crusaders 29–13 at Eden Park in Auckland. It was a polished home performance following their 30–27 away loss to the Brumbies in Round 3. Their results at Eden Park have been important, they also beat the Western Force 42–32 away in Round 2, and they head into this game as clear favourites.
Moana Pasifika are struggling to find any consistency. They lost 57–24 away to the Chiefs last week and 35–19 at home to the Western Force the week before. Their only win of the season came in Round 1 when they upset the Fijian Drua 40–26 away from home. A trip to Auckland to face the Blues in this form is a daunting task.
Head-to-Head
The Blues have dominated this fixture in recent years. They won 36–17 at home in April 2025, and 47–8 in Auckland in 2024 when Moana Pasifika were the hosts in Samoa. The only recent blemish was a 27–21 defeat when Moana Pasifika hosted them in May 2025, but that was on neutral-ish ground.
Betting
The Blues are massive favourites at 1.03, with Moana Pasifika at 15.00. The draw is at 76.00.
Handicap: Blues [−27.5]
Verdict
The Blues are at home against a side who have conceded 57 points in each of their last two matches. The handicap is steep but the scoring data this season supports it although I prefer the Blues points overs.
Suggested Bet: Blues over 46.5 points at 1.83
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Super Rugby matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
