Serie A Weekend Betting Preview, 18-19 October
This weekend’s slate brings another round of statement fixtures, Roma hosting Inter in a heavyweight clash at the Olimpico, Atalanta and Lazio meeting in Bergamo with both sides needing consistency, and Milan looking to strengthen their title credentials at home to struggling Fiorentina. Each carries weight in the standings, and more than a few intriguing betting angles.
In the outright market, Napoli are narrow favourites at 8/5, with Inter Milan close behind at 5/2. AC Milan’s early surge has seen them priced up at 13/4, while both Juventus as well as Roma sit at 10/1. The rest of the field can be backed at 40/1 or greater.
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SATURDAY
AS ROMA v INTER MILAN – Click here to bet
We begin the weekend’s play with a heavyweight clash in the capital as Roma welcome Inter Milan to the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening. Roma enter the round sitting 2nd in the standings with 15 points from six matches (W5 L1), and come into this one in good spirits after a 2-1 victory away to Fiorentina before the international break.
That result marked a third straight league win for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side, who have conceded just once during that stretch, showcasing their growing defensive resilience. At home, the Giallorossi have taken six points from three league fixtures this season, winning twice and losing once, with only one goal conceded in the capital so far — a statistic that highlights their organisation and structure.
Inter Milan make the trip to Rome looking to continue their own rich vein of form. Cristian Chivu’s side sit 4th with 12 points after six rounds (W4 L2), and enter this clash on a five-match winning run in all competitions, scoring 13 and conceding just twice in that period. Their most recent outing saw them sweep aside Cremonese 4-1 at the San Siro before the break.
On the road, Inter have been a touch inconsistent — one win and one defeat from two away matches, but they will take confidence from their attacking fluidity and depth of form heading into the weekend.
Head-to-Head
Both sides won 1-0 away from home last season, though Inter have dominated recent meetings overall, winning four of the last five against Roma.
Betting
AS Roma 2/1
Draw 9/4
Inter Milan 29/20
Verdict
Roma have looked solid at home but face an Inter side brimming with confidence at present. The visitors attacking sharpness may just tilt the balance in what should be quite a competitive affair. That said, I have opted to go the conservative way should this end in a draw.
Suggested Bet: Draw No Bet – Inter Milan at 77/10
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SUNDAY
ATALANTA v LAZIO – Click here to bet
Atalanta return to Gewiss Stadium following a short break where they’ll be looking to convert their steady start into something more substantial. Ivan Jurić’s men remain unbeaten in Serie A this season with 10 points from six games (W2 D4), but their inability to turn draws into wins has been a recurring theme. Their most recent outing ended 1-1 away to Como, their fourth draw of the campaign, leaving them 6th overall heading into the weekend.
At home, Atalanta have been competitive without being clinical, claiming one win and two draws from three league outings in Bergamo. While they’ve managed to score regularly, their lack of clean sheets remains an issue, yet to shut out an opponent on home soil this season.
Lazio, meanwhile, appear to have steadied the ship after a poor start that saw them lose three of their opening four matches. Maurizio Sarri’s men enter this fixture unbeaten in their last two, following a 3-0 win away to Genoa and a thrilling 3-3 draw at home to Torino. That run has lifted them to 13th with seven points (W2 D1 L3).
Away from home, the Biancocelesti have been unpredictable, winning once and losing twice in their three road games to date. Interestingly, each of those fixtures has seen only one side find the net, a potential pointer for bettors when Lazio play away.
Head-to-Head
Lazio took four points off Atalanta last season, drawing the reverse fixture and winning 1-0 in Bergamo.
Betting
Atalanta 83/100
Draw 57/20
Lazio 13/4
Verdict
Atalanta look the more settled outfit, but their tendency to share the spoils keeps punters cautious. Lazio have enough quality to make this a proper test, and with both sides showing defensive gaps, another stalemate wouldn’t surprise. The draw appeals at current prices.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 57/20
AC MILAN v FIORENTINA – Click here to bet
We close out the weekend at the San Siro where AC Milan will aim to keep their impressive start to the campaign intact when they host struggling Fiorentina. The Rossoneri sit 3rd with 13 points after six games (W4 D1 L1), and remain unbeaten in their last six across all competitions (W5 D1).
Before the break, Milan were held to a goalless draw away to Juventus, a result that cost them top spot but maintained their fine defensive record. At home, Massimiliano Allegri’s side have won two of three in Serie A, scoring four and conceding three, and have strung together three consecutive victories in all competitions at the San Siro since their opening-day defeat to Cremonese.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, continue to toil near the bottom end of the table. Winless after six rounds (D3 L3), Stefano Pioli’s men have struggled for goals, scoring only four while conceding eight, and come into this match off the back of a 2-1 home defeat to Roma. That leaves La Viola 17th, desperate for a turnaround.
Their away form provides a sliver of encouragement: unbeaten in all competitions on the road this season (W1 D3), though all three away league matches have finished level, with just one goal scored and one conceded.
Head-to-Head
Fiorentina had the upper hand last season, taking four points from Milan , winning 2-1 in Florence, and drawing 2-2 in this corresponding fixture.
Betting
AC Milan 27/50
Draw 7/2
Fiorentina 5/1
Verdict
Fiorentina might make Milan work for it early on, but the Rossoneri usually get it done at home. No need to overcomplicate things, Milan to win looks the straightforward call.
Suggested Bet: AC Milan to Win and Over 1.5 goals (Bet Builder) at 4/5
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
