English Premier League Betting Preview, Saturday 18 October
Now that the international break is over, Premier League action is back, and we take a look at three key fixtures this Saturday. Nottingham Forest host Chelsea, with the home side still chasing their first league win under Ange Postecoglou. Brighton welcome Newcastle, who remain unbeaten on the road, promising a tight, tactical battle. Finally, promoted sides Burnley and Leeds go head-to-head at Turf Moor in a physical scrap where every point counts.
Looking at the Premier League title market ahead of this weekend’s action, Arsenal sit at 91/100 as favourites after a strong start, with Liverpool close behind at 11/4. Manchester City are next at 4/1, while Chelsea remain outsiders at 25/1. The rest of the field can be snapped up at 40/1 or longer.
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST v CHELSEA — Click here to bet
Nottingham Forest return to the City Ground still searching for rhythm and, crucially, their first league win under Ange Postecoglou. Their 2–0 defeat away at Newcastle on matchday seven, just before the international break, summed up their struggles which were competitive in spells, but undone by lapses at both ends. It marked a ninth consecutive game without victory, leaving Forest teetering just above the relegation zone in 17th with five points from seven matches.
Forest have won just once all season and are currently on a three-match losing streak at the City Ground in all competitions. That run includes defeats to Premier League rivals West Ham and Sunderland, followed by a disappointing European setback against Midtjylland. Goals have also dried up, Forest have failed to find the net in each of their last two home league fixtures.
Chelsea, by contrast, arrive buoyed by a thrilling 2–1 win over Liverpool, snatched in stoppage time by teenage star Estêvão. That victory lifted Enzo Maresca’s side to seventh in the table on 11 points, and while inconsistency remains a concern, the mood around Stamford Bridge has noticeably improved.
However, the Blues’ away form remains a worry. They’ve collected just one point from their last two league outings on the road, drawing 2–2 at Brentford before slipping to a 2–1 defeat at Old Trafford. Maresca’s men have shown plenty of promise in possession, but lapses in control and composure continue to cost them valuable results away from home.
Head-to-Head
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Forest, winning two and drawing one. The Londoners collected four points from a possible six last season, a 1–1 draw at Stamford Bridge followed by a 1–0 win at the City Ground.
Betting
Nottingham Forest 11/4
Draw 11/4
Chelsea 49/50
Verdict
Forest will dig deep and try to make this a scrap, but Chelsea should have too much quality despite their patchy away form. The hosts look short on confidence and creativity, and unless they can rediscover some attacking spark, it’s hard to look past the visitors.
Suggested Bet: Full-Time Result — Chelsea at 49/50
BRIGHTON v NEWCASTLE UNITED – Click here to bet
Brighton return to the Amex this weekend looking to steady the ship after a frustrating 1–1 draw at Wolves before the international break. Fabian Hürzeler’s men controlled long spells of that contest but once again lacked a ruthless touch in front of goal, a recurring theme in their campaign so far. Sitting 12th in the table on nine points, the Seagulls have mixed bright, fluid football with lapses in finishing that continue to hold them back.
Back on home soil, though, Brighton have shown flashes of the attacking verve that defined them last season. Unbeaten at the Amex with one win and two draws, their 2–1 triumph over Manchester City served as a reminder of what this team can do when the gears click. That said, Hürzeler will be wary of a Newcastle side that, while yet to find fluency going forward, remain unbeaten and unbreached on their travels.
Eddie Howe’s men returned to winning ways before the break with a composed 2–0 victory over Nottingham Forest, a result that eased pressure after a sluggish start. That win lifted the Magpies to 11th on nine points, and they’ll now be chasing back-to-back league victories for the first time this season.
Newcastle’s attacking numbers remain moderate with 6 goals scored from 7 league appearances, but it’s their away performances that have lacked spark upfront. Defensively solid, with three consecutive goalless draws on their travels, the challenge now is turning that resilience into cutting edge. A breakthrough at the Amex would go a long way toward proving their revival is real.
Head-to-Head
Brighton held the upper hand over Newcastle last season, unbeaten in all competitions with a league win, a draw, and a 2–1 triumph at St James’ Park in the FA Cup fifth round.
Betting
Brighton 6/4
Draw 5/2
Newcastle 7/4
Verdict
Brighton should dictate possession and tempo, but Newcastle’s organisation and counter-attacking threat could frustrate them. With both sides likely to cancel each other out for long periods, chances may be at a premium in what looks a tight, tactical battle.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – No at 6/5
BURNLEY v LEEDS UNITED – Click here to bet
Burnley’s return to the top flight continues to be a harsh learning curve. Their 2–1 defeat away to Aston Villa last time out means they remain 18th on four points, with just one win from seven and the division’s 2nd worst defensive record, 15 goals conceded and a goal difference of minus 8. Scott Parker’s men have yet to adapt to the demands of Premier League football, and the need for improvement is becoming increasingly urgent if they are to avoid a swift return to the Championship.
This weekend, the Clarets host fellow promoted side Leeds United at Turf Moor, where they’ll take some comfort from last season’s meetings, Burnley went unbeaten against the Peacocks in the Championship, including a 1–0 victory at Elland Road. Turf Moor has been Burnley’s best source of points this campaign, with all four of their tally coming at home (one win, one draw, one defeat), underlining that their modest strength lies on familiar soil.
Leeds, meanwhile, have shown signs of stability since their return to the top flight. They’ve lost just once in their last three Premier League matches, a 2–1 defeat to Spurs last time out, and sit 15th in the standings with eight points from seven games (W2 D2 L3). Like Burnley, their struggles have mostly come away from home. The Peacocks’ only away victory so far came at Wolves, but that was offset by a 1–0 defeat at Fulham and a heavy 5–0 loss at Arsenal, leaving them with just three points from a possible nine on the road.
Head-to-Head
Burnley went unbeaten against Leeds in last season’s Championship campaign, earning a 1–0 win at Elland Road and a goalless draw in this corresponding fixture at Turf Moor.
Betting
Burnley 9/4
Draw 9/4
Leeds United 13/10
Verdict
Two promoted sides desperate for points meet in what’s likely to be a tense and tactical contest. Both have shown greater resilience at home than on their travels, and neither is likely to take big risks with so much at stake. Expect a physical battle with few clear chances.
Suggested Bet: Totals – Under 2.5 at 67/100
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
