English Premier League Betting Preview, Sunday 5 October
Sunday’s Premier League line-up features three intriguing clashes, with Brentford’s meeting against Manchester City at the Gtech taking top billing. Earlier in the afternoon, Newcastle look to shake off their slow domestic start when they welcome Nottingham Forest to St James’ Park, while Aston Villa aim to build on last weekend’s breakthrough win as they entertain Burnley at Villa Park. Below, we break down all three fixtures with betting angles and suggested plays.
Turning to the outright market, Arsenal set the pace at 5/4, closely followed by Liverpool at 7/4. Manchester City remain firmly in the picture at 5/1, while Chelsea are priced up at 33/1. The chasing pack can be found at 50/1 and bigger.
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NEWCASTLE UNITED v NOTTINGHAM FOREST – Click here to bet
Newcastle step back into Premier League duty with renewed confidence after their 4-0 Champions League demolition of Royale Union in midweek. It was a timely statement following a 2-1 home defeat to Arsenal just days before, but Eddie Howe will know his side can’t keep relying on Europe to spark their campaign. Sitting 15th with six points from six games is not what was expected of a side aiming for the top half, and with two defeats from three league matches at St James’ Park, the home form has been well below par.
Nottingham Forest head into the weekend with a Europa League clash against Midtjylland on Thursday adding to what has already been a testing start. Ange Postecoglou has only just taken charge, so this is more about transition than crisis, but the early numbers don’t flatter, five points from six games, no wins since the opening weekend, and a deflating 1-0 defeat at home to Sunderland last week. Sitting 17th in the early standings, they’ve shown patches of intent but have yet to find a consistent cutting edge in the league.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle did the double over Forest last season, winning 3-1 at the City Ground before edging a 4-3 thriller at St James’ Park.
Betting
Newcastle 4/6
Draw 16/5
Nottingham Forest 4/1
Verdict
Newcastle’s domestic form has been below their standards, but the midweek result may finally give them lift-off. Forest are still settling under new management and lack momentum, and St James’ Park can be an unforgiving place if the hosts get their tails up early.
Suggested Bet: Result and Totals – Newcastle United & Over 2.5 at 29/20
ASTON VILLA v BURNLEY – Click here to bet
Aston Villa return to domestic duty on Sunday following Thursday night’s Europa League trip to Feyenoord, and Unai Emery will be demanding his side back up last weekend’s long-awaited breakthrough. Their 3-1 victory over Fulham finally gave them a first league win of the campaign after three draws and two defeats, lifting them slightly away from danger. Even so, six points from six games leaves them stuck down in 16th, which is still well short of expectations. Home form has been mixed too, with a win, a draw and a loss so far, alongside just three goals scored and four conceded. For a side with European ambitions, the levels need to rise.
Burnley’s return to the top flight has been a brutal reality check. While fellow promoted sides Leeds and Sunderland have shown they can compete, Scott Parker’s men have struggled to cope with the pace and quality of the Premier League. A solitary win and four defeats from six games has them 18th, and last week’s 5-1 hiding at Manchester City exposed every weakness, soft at the back, unable to control midfield, and far too fragile when momentum turns against them. Their away record sums it up with three defeats from three, 11 goals conceded. Unless Parker finds a formula quickly, the Clarets will be exactly where many tipped them and that is in a survival scrap from the outset.
Head-to-Head
Villa took maximum points the last time these two met in 2023/24, winning 3-1 at Turf Moor before edging a 3-2 thriller here at Villa Park.
Betting
Aston Villa 4/7
Draw 16/5
Burnley 5/1
Verdict
Burnley’s leaky defence makes them hard to trust, especially away from home. Villa are still far from convincing, but with last weekend’s win under their belt and Emery’s side slowly finding their feet, this looks the ideal opportunity to build some momentum. Burnley may land a punch, but over 90 minutes Villa should have too much quality.
Suggested Bet: Handicap – Aston Villa -1.5 at 31/20
BRENTFORD v MANCHESTER CITY – Click here to bet
Brentford head into this one in buoyant mood after sweeping aside Manchester United 3-1 last weekend. That win ended a run of three league games without a victory and lifted them into 13th with seven points. At the Gtech, the Bees have been typically stubborn, unbeaten with two wins and a draw, scoring six and conceding only three. It’s a ground where plenty of bigger clubs have struggled before, and Keith Andrews’ side will be hoping they can make this another awkward afternoon for the eight-time Premier league winners.
Manchester City, though, arrive in solid form. A 2-2 draw away at Monaco in the Champions League extended their unbeaten run to six games across all competitions (W4, D2). Domestically, Pep Guardiola’s side are quietly climbing the table, with seven points from their last three league fixtures putting them 7th with 10 points overall. The big talking point remains Erling Haaland, who has eight league goals already and grabbed another brace in midweek. However, City’s away record has been patchy with four points from three trips, including a loss at Brighton. Defensively they’ve shown cracks on the road, and Brentford will be eyeing those weaknesses.
Head-to-Head
City had the better of it last season, winning 2-1 at the Etihad and drawing 2-2 here. They’re unbeaten in the last four meetings, winning three.
Betting
Brentford 15/4
Draw 33/10
Manchester City 4/6
Verdict
Brentford’s home form gives them every chance of making this competitive, but City’s quality usually tells over the course of 90 minutes. Haaland’s finishing touch is the difference-maker, and while the Bees could grab a goal, it feels like another job City will eventually get done.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score – Manchester City & Yes at 2/1
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
