The penultimate round of the Rugby Championship kicks off this weekend with all four teams still having a chance to win the Tournament. We will take a look at the match between New Zealand and Australia at Eden Park and offer up a few plays for your consideration.
New Zealand
New Zealand’s campaign has been a mixed bag. They opened strongly with a convincing win over Argentina, only to slip up against the same opponents in their second outing, both games were played on the road. A solid victory over South Africa at Eden Park seemed to steady the ship, but Round 4 brought a record defeat to the Springboks in Wellington.
As it stands, the All Blacks sit third on the table, level on points with South Africa but trailing on points difference. Their inconsistency has been the story of the tournament so far.
New Zealand Lineup
- Ethan de Groot, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Fabian Holland, 5. Tupou Vaa’i, 6. Simon Parker, 7. Ardie Savea (c), 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Caleb Clarke, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Billy Proctor, 14. Leroy Carter, 15. Will Jordan.
Reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Patrick Tuipulotu, 20. Peter Lakai, 21. Cortez Ratima, 22. Quinn Tupaea, 23. Damian McKenzie.
Australia
Australia’s campaign began in style with a come-from-behind victory over South Africa in Johannesburg, where they pulled clear comfortably in the closing stages. The momentum didn’t last, however, as they slipped to a 30–22 defeat in Cape Town in the return fixture.
Back on home soil for Rounds 3 and 4, the Wallabies edged Argentina in dramatic fashion with a last-play try in the first encounter, only to fall short in the second, losing 28–26.
Despite the setbacks, Australia sit at the top of the table thanks to an extra bonus point, with New Zealand and South Africa just behind. They have also been the competition’s most potent attacking side, scoring more points than any other team so far.
Australia starting Lineup
- James Slipper, 2. Billy Pollard, 3. Taniela Tupou, 4. Nick Frost, 5. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 6. Tom Hooper, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. Harry Wilson (c), 9. Tate McDermott, 10. James O’Connor, 11. Corey Toole, 12. Len Ikitau, 13. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 14. Harry Potter, 15. Max Jorgensen.
Reserves: 16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17. Angus Bell, 18. Allan Alaalatoa, 19. Jeremy Williams, 20. Carlo Tizzano, 21. Ryan Lonergan, 22. Tane Edmed, 23. Filipo Daugunu.
Head-to-head
New Zealand have dominated recent meetings between the two sides, winning the last nine encounters in a row. Australia’s most recent victory came back in 2020, when they edged a 24–22 win on home soil. Since then, the All Blacks have held firm, including a convincing 33–13 victory in their most recent clash last year.
Betting and Verdict
Match Odds
New Zealand 1.12
Australia 8.50
Draw 41.00
Handicap
New Zealand -14.5
Australia look one of the most underrated international sides in World Rugby at the moment. After a few lean years, the new coaching staff have started to build an impressive squad and the results are beginning to show. They pushed one of the strongest British and Irish Lions sides in history all the way, and since then have put together a string of eye-catching results. They beat South Africa in Johannesburg, followed up with a solid win against Argentina, and despite narrow losses, remain firmly in the title race.
Currently sitting top of the Rugby Championship with two games to play, Australia know they have a genuine chance of lifting the trophy. While New Zealand remain strong favourites, I think this match will be much closer than some expect.
Suggested Bet
Handicap: Australia +12.5 at 2.20
One pattern that stands out with Australia this season is their slow starts. In each of their first four matches, they have trailed by ten points or more at half-time before rallying in the second half. If that trend continues, New Zealand should have the upper hand early on but Australia can storm back into contention.
Suggested Bet
Half Time/Full Time New Zealand/Australia at 29.00
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