European World Cup Qualifiers – Friday 5 September
We continue this Friday with another round of European qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, and there’s plenty to talk about.
Denmark host Scotland at Parken Stadium, looking to make a strong start in Group C. Over in Wrocław, Ukraine take on France, with Les Bleus aiming to assert their authority on Group D from the first whistle. Meanwhile, Slovenia welcome Sweden to Ljubljana in their Group B opener, as the visitors look to carry their Nations League momentum into qualifying. Here are my thoughts, along with some suggested bets to consider.
Looking at the outright market (to win the World Cup), Spain lead the way as early favourites at 5/1, closely followed by France and Brazil at 13/2. England are next at 7/1, Argentina at 8/1, and Germany at 10/1. For those willing to look further down the list, teams priced at 11/1 and above could offer intriguing value.
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UKRAINE v FRANCE – Click here to bet
Ukraine open their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with a daunting fixture against France at the Tarczynski Arena in Wrocław. Due to the ongoing conflict, they will play all six of their qualifiers on Polish soil, making the challenge of reaching the finals even greater. The Ukrainians endured a difficult UEFA Nations League, finishing second in League B Group 1 and narrowly losing 4-3 on aggregate to Belgium in a bid for promotion to League A. Since then, they have featured in a couple of friendlies to prepare for qualifying, a 4-2 defeat to Canada was followed by a 2-1 win over New Zealand in June.
France arrive in Wrocław as firm favourites after a strong 2024/25 UEFA Nations League campaign. Les Bleus topped a demanding League A Group 2 ahead of Italy, Belgium and Israel, before edging Croatia 5-4 on penalties after finishing 2-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals. Despite losing to Spain in the semis, they wrapped up the tournament with a 2-0 win over hosts Germany to claim third place. Unlike Ukraine, France have not featured in any internationals since then, but with pedigree, squad depth and momentum on their side, they will be determined to stamp their authority on a Group D that also includes Iceland and Azerbaijan from the outset.
Head-to-Head
The sides last met in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, with both fixtures ending 1-1 — in Paris and in Kyiv. Overall, France have won 6 of the 12 previous encounters, while Ukraine’s sole victory came in a 2013 play-off first leg.
Betting
Ukraine 15/2
Draw 4/1
France 4/10
Verdict
Ukraine face a tough start to their World Cup qualifying campaign, with all their “home” matches being played in Poland. Their confidence has taken a hit after a tricky Nations League and mixed friendly results. France, by contrast, boast quality and depth across the park and should have the upper hand, thouh they can occasionally be vulnerable at the back. Both teams have scored in each of their last three meetings, so the value looks to be in goals at both ends rather than backing an away win at short odds.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 23/20
SLOVENIA v SWEDEN – Click here to bet
Slovenia open their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign on Friday when they host Sweden at the Stadion Stožice. They head in with something to prove after a patchy Nations League, collecting just 8 points in League B Group 3 (W2 D2 L2), with both wins against Kazakhstan – including a 3-0 home victory – while heavy defeats to Norway, most notably 4-1 in Ljubljana, exposed their limitations. Finishing third forced a relegation play-off, where they showed character to edge Slovakia 1-0 on aggregate after extra time and preserve League B status. Friendly wins over Luxembourg (1-0) and Bosnia & Herzegovina (2-1) have provided a timely boost, but a competitive Group B alongside Sweden, Kosovo and Switzerland leaves little margin for error.
Sweden, meanwhile, arrive in the World Cup qualifiers buoyant after topping League C Group 1 in the Nations League with 16 points to secure promotion. They were dominant throughout, with Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak spearheading a free-scoring attack that produced a 6-0 thrashing of Azerbaijan and a crucial 2-1 win over Slovakia. Defensively solid, they conceded just four goals in six matches, while Gyökeres finished as the competition’s top scorer with nine. Since then, Sweden have warmed up with four friendlies: a 1-0 defeat to Luxembourg, followed by three straight wins – 5-1 against Northern Ireland, 2-0 over Hungary, and a thrilling 4-3 victory against Algeria.
Head-to-Head
The sides have met four times in total, with Sweden winning twice and the other two matches ending in draws. Their most recent competitive encounter came in the 2022 UEFA Nations League, when they played out a 1-1 draw at the Strawberry Arena in Sweden.
Betting
Slovenia 12/5
Draw 22/10
Sweden 13/10
Verdict
These two rarely serve up high-scoring games, with all four past meetings being cagey affairs, and this one looks likely to follow the same script. Sweden’s unbeaten run against Slovenia, combined with their strong Nations League campaign, gives them the edge. Goals should be at a premium once again, so I’m backing the visitors on the double chance with under 3.5 goals in Ljubljana.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Draw/Sweden and Under 3.5 at 4/6
DENMARK v SCOTLAND – Click here to bet
Denmark welcome Scotland to Parken Stadium this Friday, eager to kick off their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign on a high. The Danes have reached the past two World Cups (2018 and 2022) and will be looking to make it three consecutive tournaments for the first time in their history. Their Nations League run ended in the quarter-finals, where they were narrowly beaten 5-3 on aggregate after extra time by eventual winners Portugal. Since then, Denmark have used two friendlies to fine-tune their preparation, edging Northern Ireland 2-1 before dominating Lithuania 5-0. With Belarus and Greece also in Group C, Denmark will be confident of opening their account with a win at home.
Scotland make the trip to Denmark determined to end a long wait for World Cup action, having last qualified back in 1998. They arrive after a 3-1 aggregate defeat to Greece in the UEFA Nations League play-offs, which saw them relegated to League B. Since then, the Scots have featured in two friendlies, first losing 3-1 to Iceland before bouncing back with a 4-0 victory over Liechtenstein. Scotland will be desperate to make a statement in Copenhagen, knowing a positive result could set the tone for the early stages of Group C.
Head-to-Head
The last competitive meetings between the sides came during the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, with both teams winning their respective home games 2-0. Scotland hold a slight historical advantage overall, with 11 wins to Denmark’s 7 in 18 encounters.
Betting
Denmark 6/10
Draw 3/1
Scotland 5/1
Verdict
I like the look of Denmark in this opener. They impressed me in the UEFA Nations League, and I think they can get off to a winning start at home. Scotland, on the other hand, have had mixed results recently. They will certainly be competitive, but I think home-ground advantage could prove to be the difference in what is likely to be a closely fought affair.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Denmark at 6/10
Click here for betting on all of this weekend’s international matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
