The second UEFA Nations League semi-final takes centre stage this Thursday in Stuttgart as Spain look to continue their title defence against 2021 champions France. Both sides arrive off the back of dramatic quarter-final wins, and given how closely matched they’ve been in recent meetings, we could well be in for another gripping affair. Here are my thoughts, along with some key insights and a betting angle worth considering.
The outright odds suggest there’s very little to separate the final four. Hosts Germany lead the way narrowly at 7/4, with Spain close behind at 22/10. France are also firmly in the mix at 29/10, while Portugal are considered the outsiders at 4/1.
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SPAIN v FRANCE– Click here to bet
Reigning champions Spain continue their title defence in the second semi-final of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League this Thursday, as they meet 2021 winners France at the MHP Arena in Stuttgart. With both nations boasting proven pedigree in this competition, another heavyweight showdown awaits between two of Europe’s most talented sides.
Spain have looked sharp throughout the campaign under head coach Luis de la Fuente. After lifting the trophy in 2023, La Roja returned to Group A4 with renewed purpose—topping a tricky section ahead of Denmark, Serbia, and Switzerland. They finished the group with five wins from six while netting 13 goals and conceding only four in return.
In the quarter-finals, Spain demonstrated both resilience and attacking quality in a dramatic two-legged tie against the Netherlands. Regulation time ended 2-2 in both legs, with extra time in the second producing further twists as each side struck again. Ultimately, Spain held their nerve in the penalty shootout to book their place in the final four, prevailing 6-5 on aggregate.
While La Roja have managed just three clean sheets from their last 12 appearances, they remain unbeaten in their last 18 overall—highlighting a strong run of form despite occasional defensive lapses. Their youthful look, aggressive pressing, and balanced midfield have been instrumental to their success, and they’ll be eager to continue where they left off this Thursday in Stuttgart.
Meanwhile, France emerged from a fiercely competitive Group A2 featuring Italy, Belgium, and Israel. The 2021 UEFA Nations League winners topped the group with four wins, one draw, and just one defeat, scoring 12 and conceding six. With a balanced mix of youth and experience, they look well equipped to mount a serious challenge against the defending champions as they aim for a second Nations League title before turning their attention to World Cup qualification.
France’s resolve was tested in the quarter-finals by a determined Croatian side. After suffering a surprise 2-0 defeat in Split, Les Bleus responded with a composed 2-0 victory of their own in the return leg at the Stade de France. The tie was ultimately settled on penalties, with France holding their nerve to advance—delivering heartbreak for Croatia and a wave of relief for the home crowd in Paris.
However, recent performances have raised questions over their consistency. France have lost three of their last nine matches and have managed just one clean sheet during that period—figures that have certainly placed significant pressure on Didier Deschamps. Defensive vulnerabilities could prove costly against a free-flowing Spanish side.
Leading the line will be Kylian Mbappé, who remains France’s most dangerous weapon despite a quieter spell on the international stage. The talismanic forward has yet to find the net in this Nations League campaign after four appearances, but his domestic form has been nothing short of outstanding—scoring 31 goals in 34 La Liga games for Real Madrid this season. He will be eager to rediscover his scoring touch for Les Bleus and make a decisive impact this Thursday in Stuttgart.
Head-to-Head
Spain had the upper hand in the most recent encounter between these two sides, securing a 2-1 victory over France in the UEFA EURO 2024 semi-finals in Munich. That result served as revenge for their 2-1 defeat to Les Bleus in the 2021 UEFA Nations League final in Milan. Overall, the last four meetings between the nations have been evenly split, with two wins apiece.
Betting
Spain 15/10
Draw 22/10
France 2/1
Verdict
This one has all the ingredients for a tight, end-to-end battle. Spain have looked the more cohesive and energetic side throughout the tournament, while France—despite all their talent and experience—have yet to fully click. Both teams showed real character to come through their quarter-finals, and with their last two meetings finishing 2-1, another close contest seems likely. With both sides looking vulnerable at the back—Spain managing just three clean sheets in their last 12 and France only one in their last nine—goals at both ends looks the most reliable play in what could go either way.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 8/11
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