We take a closer look at three key fixtures in Round 36 of La Liga — each with major implications for the title race, European qualification, or relegation scrap. Here are my insights and suggested bets for each clash.
Before diving into the selections, here’s a quick look at the latest outright odds. Barcelona are now overwhelming favourites at 1/1000 to clinch their 28th league title, having opened up a seven-point lead over Real Madrid with just three matches left to play. The title race looks all but wrapped up, barring a major collapse. Meanwhile, the battle for fourth between Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao remains fiercely contested and could go right down to the wire.
Click here for all the long-term La Liga outright markets
TUESDAY
REAL VALLADOLID v GIRONA – Click here to bet
Tuesday’s La Liga action features a meeting between two sides with very different priorities as already-relegated Real Valladolid welcome Girona to the Estadio José Zorrilla. With three games left to play, Michel’s men still have work to do to confirm their top-flight survival, while Valladolid’s fate has already been sealed.
Valladolid remain rooted to the foot of the table with just 16 points from 35 games and will finish bottom regardless of results in their final three fixtures. A 2-1 defeat away to Mallorca last time out marked their ninth consecutive league loss, underlining a campaign that has offered very little in the way of positives.
Alvaro Rubio’s side have struggled in all departments since their return to La Liga. They are the league’s lowest scorers with just 26 goals and have also conceded the most (85). At home, the numbers are equally damning—just 13 points collected from 17 games (W3, D4, L10), with 11 goals scored and 30 conceded. With morale low and no tangible objectives remaining, Valladolid will simply be looking to avoid further embarrassment in front of their own fans.
Girona, by contrast, still have plenty to play for. Despite sitting 15th with 38 points—more than double Valladolid’s total—Michel’s side are only four points above the drop zone and cannot yet be assured of safety. Following last season’s impressive third-place finish and Champions League qualification, this campaign has been a major step backwards.
A 1-0 home defeat to Villarreal at the weekend means Girona have now taken just four points from their last seven games (W1, D1, L5), and with tough fixtures against Real Sociedad and Atlético Madrid to come, this trip to bottom-club Valladolid may represent their best remaining chance to secure three crucial points.
Their away record this season has been patchy at best, with 14 points collected from 17 road games (W3, D5, L9), scoring 14 goals and conceding 27. Nonetheless, given their opponents’ woeful form and relegation already confirmed, Girona will view this as a must-win opportunity to edge closer to safety.
Head-to-Head
Girona ran out 3-0 winners in the reverse fixture earlier this season, but their recent record at the Estadio José Zorrilla is poor, failing to win on each of their last eight visits. The last time they travelled to Valladolid was in 2023, when they were beaten 1-0.
Betting
Real Valladolid 9/2
Draw 16/5
Girona 5/8
Verdict
With nothing on the line for Valladolid and confidence at rock bottom, Girona will be under pressure to take advantage of this fixture. While their away record and recent form have been underwhelming, the visitors should have enough motivation and quality to get the job done against a side that’s been comfortably the weakest in the division.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Girona at 5/8
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WEDNESDAY
REAL MADRID v RCD MALLORCA – Click here to bet
Wednesday night at the Santiago Bernabéu sees Real Madrid attempt to bounce back from a painful El Clásico defeat as they host a Real Mallorca side still chasing European qualification.
Sunday’s seven-goal thriller against Barcelona provided entertainment for the neutrals but heartbreak for Carlo Ancelotti’s men, who surrendered an early two-goal lead before eventually falling to a 4-3 defeat. Kylian Mbappé’s hat-trick was not enough to salvage anything from the encounter, and with just three matches left, Real Madrid now trail Barcelona by seven points—effectively ending their chances of retaining the La Liga title.
It was Los Blancos’ first defeat in five league outings, having won four on the bounce prior to El Clásico. While the title may now be out of reach, Ancelotti’s side will still be motivated to finish the season strongly and avoid the indignity of handing the trophy to their rivals without a fight. A defeat on Wednesday would officially confirm Barcelona as champions before they even kick off on Thursday night.
Madrid’s home form remains formidable with 43 points collected from 17 matches (W14, D1, L2), netting 41 goals while conceding 18. However, they’ve shown some vulnerability at the back lately, conceding in four of their last five league fixtures. That slight dip in defensive solidity could offer a glimmer of hope for Mallorca, especially given what’s at stake for the visitors.
Mallorca arrive in the capital off the back of a 2-1 home win over Valladolid—a result that keeps them in the mix for European qualification. Sitting 9th with 47 points, Jagoba Arrasate’s side are just two points shy of 7th-placed Celta Vigo, and with three matches remaining, a late push for a UEFA Conference League or even Europa League spot isn’t out of the question.
Away from home, Mallorca have produced a mixed return of 20 points from 17 games (W6, D2, L9), scoring 14 and conceding 21. While not spectacular, that record includes enough competitive displays to suggest they won’t roll over easily, especially given their motivation to keep pace with the teams above them.
Head-to-Head
These sides played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture earlier this season in Mallorca. However, history favours Real Madrid heavily at the Bernabéu—Los Blancos have won each of their last eight La Liga home matches against Mallorca, including a 1-0 success in this corresponding fixture last season.
Betting
Real Madrid 7/20
Draw 9/2
RCD Mallorca 15/2
Verdict
With the title now realistically out of reach, Madrid’s focus will be on restoring pride and seeing out the campaign on a positive note. While Mallorca will offer resistance given their own European ambitions, the hosts’ firepower—particularly with Mbappé in red-hot form—should be enough to secure all three points, though another clean sheet may be too much to ask given recent defensive lapses.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score – Real Madrid and Yes at 15/8
THURSDAY
ESPANYOL v BARCELONA – Click here to bet
The RCDE Stadium plays host to what could either be a title celebration or a tense derby encounter, as Espanyol welcome fierce local rivals Barcelona in Thursday night’s Catalan clash.
Espanyol, currently 14th in the standings with 39 points, find themselves hovering just five points above the relegation zone and in desperate need of a result. Unfortunately for the Budgerigars, the visit of a title-chasing Barcelona side is hardly ideal timing. The equation could shift depending on how Real Madrid fare on Wednesday against Mallorca—should Los Blancos fail to win, Barça will be officially crowned champions before a ball is even kicked in this derby, potentially softening their approach. But if not, expect a fully fired-up Barcelona gunning for the title in enemy territory.
Manolo González’s men are coming off a third consecutive league defeat, having gone down 3-2 away at Leganés last weekend. It’s been a worrying slump for Espanyol after previously going five matches unbeaten (W3, D2), and they’ll be desperate to recapture that earlier form to avoid being dragged deeper into the relegation scrap.
One encouraging sign for Espanyol is their relative strength at home. They’ve picked up 27 of their 39 points at the RCDE Stadium this season (W7, D6, L4), scoring 21 goals and conceding 18. That balance suggests this could be more competitive than many expect—especially if Barcelona arrive having already sealed the title.
The visitors, however, are in formidable form. Fresh off a sensational 4-3 win over arch-rivals Real Madrid in Sunday’s El Clásico—a match in which they came from 2-0 down—Barcelona have put their Champions League heartbreak behind them in style. Hansi Flick’s side are now unbeaten in 15 La Liga matches (W14, D1) and appear laser-focused on securing a domestic treble in what is already a remarkable debut season for the German tactician.
Away from home, Barça have been imperious. They’ve taken 39 points from 17 road trips (W12, D3, L2), scoring 45 goals and conceding just 19. With five straight away wins in the league, they travel across town on Thursday night brimming with confidence and momentum.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona claimed a 3-1 win in the reverse fixture earlier this season and also ran out 4-2 winners in this corresponding fixture last term. In fact, Espanyol have failed to win any of the last 27 La Liga derbies against Barcelona, with their last league victory over their rivals coming way back in 2009.
Betting
Espanyol 15/2
Draw 5/1
Barcelona 1/3
Verdict
This fixture could go one of two ways depending on what happens at the Bernabéu the night before. If Real Madrid slip up and Barcelona are crowned champions early, we could see a slightly more relaxed Blaugrana approach. But if the title is still on the line, expect a fully motivated side to wrap it up in style. Espanyol will fight—especially on home soil—but the gulf in quality and form is stark. Barcelona should prove too strong.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Draw/Barcelona and Over 2.5 at 4/7
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
