Round 36 is upon us, and with just three rounds remaining, every point matters more than ever. This weekend’s fixtures carry huge significance at both ends of the table—here are my thoughts, along with suggested bets to help guide your selections.
First, a quick glance at the title race odds: with three rounds to go, Napoli remain in pole position, holding a narrow three-point lead over Inter Milan. The bookmakers have made them firm favourites to lift the Scudetto at 1/9, while Inter are priced at 9/2 as they look to stage a dramatic late charge.
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SATURDAY
LAZIO v JUVENTUS – Click here to bet
Following their Europa League quarter-final exit to Bodø/Glimt, Lazio have responded positively on the domestic front with an unbeaten run of six matches in Serie A (W3, D3). Last weekend’s narrow 1-0 away win over Empoli has kept Marco Baroni’s side in the hunt for European qualification, currently sitting 6th with 63 points—level on points with both Roma and Juventus but behind on goal difference. Saturday’s clash at the Stadio Olimpico could be a pivotal moment, as a win would see the Biancocelesti leapfrog their visitors into Champions League contention.
Despite their solid home record, Lazio have been held back by a string of stalemates at the Olimpico. They are unbeaten in their last six home league outings, but all of the last five have ended in draws. Their overall home record this season reads: W7, D8, L2—claiming 29 points from 17 games. With 32 goals scored and 24 conceded at home, matches here have tended to be open affairs, with three or more goals featuring in 12 of their 17 league fixtures.
Juventus, meanwhile, make the trip to the capital on the back of a 1-1 draw away to Bologna. They sit 4th, also on 63 points, but above Lazio thanks to a superior goal difference. Igor Tudor’s side have managed two wins, two draws and a loss in their last five Serie A games but have struggled on the road recently—picking up just two points from their last four away trips. The Bianconeri have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
Overall, Juve have claimed 26 points from 17 away games (W6, D8, L3), scoring 23 and conceding 17. They’ve not been prolific on the road, and low-scoring matches have been a common theme, with 10 of their 17 away games producing two goals or fewer.
Head-to-Head
Juventus claimed a 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season. However, Lazio have had the edge at home recently, winning the last two league meetings at the Olimpico, including a 1-0 win last season.
Betting
Lazio 15/10
Draw 9/4
Juventus 2/1
Verdict
With both sides level on points and vying for a Champions League spot, a tense and cautious encounter is likely. Lazio’s habit of drawing at home, coupled with Juventus’ recent stalemate away to Bologna, suggests another shared result could be on the cards.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 9/4
EMPOLI v PARMA – Click here to bet
Stadio Carlo Castellani will serve as the battleground for a high-stakes relegation clash this Saturday, as second-from-bottom Empoli host 16th-placed Parma in what could prove a decisive fixture in the fight for top-flight survival. Both teams enter this crucial encounter aware that the outcome could significantly shape their fate, with only three games remaining in the season.
For Empoli, the situation is growing increasingly dire. Roberto D’Aversa’s side are winless in their last 20 league matches, having picked up just six points since early December—the last time they tasted victory in Serie A. A 1-0 home defeat to Lazio last weekend marked their third consecutive loss in all competitions and their 18th of the league campaign. Home form offers little encouragement either; Empoli have failed to win any of their last 12 home games in all competitions, with 11 of those coming in Serie A. Their home record this season reads: W1, D7, L9.
Goal-shy Empoli have managed just 7 goals at home all season while conceding 23—producing a string of low-scoring affairs with 12 of their 17 home matches featuring under 2.5 goals. With only 25 points, Empoli sit 19th and are running out of time and opportunities.
Parma, by contrast, appear in a slightly more stable position with 32 points, seven ahead of their hosts. But Cristian Chivu’s side will know that a defeat here could haul them back into the relegation scrap. They’re also coming off a disappointing 1-0 home defeat to Como last weekend, which snapped their seven-game unbeaten run (W1, D6).
While Parma’s away record isn’t much to boast about—just one win in 17 outings (D9, L7)—they have shown resilience in recent weeks with four consecutive away draws, including two clean sheets. Their defensive structure has helped steady the ship, and that may prove vital against an Empoli side that struggles badly in front of goal.
Head-to-Head
These sides played out a 1-1 draw earlier this season, while their last league meeting at this venue in 2019 ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw.
Betting
Empoli 23/20
Draw 12/5
Parma 5/2
Verdict
Neither side comes into this match in convincing form, but Parma have shown more fight and defensive resolve in recent weeks. Empoli’s goal drought and dismal home record make them difficult to back with confidence. A low-scoring stalemate appears to be the most likely outcome, with Parma capable of grinding out a crucial point on the road.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance – Draw or Parma at 7/10
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SUNDAY
NAPOLI v GENOA – Click here to bet
Napoli will host Genoa at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Sunday evening, aiming to take another significant step toward the Serie A title with a vital three points. With just three games remaining, Antonio Conte’s side sit top of the standings on 77 points, holding a three-point lead over second-placed Inter Milan, and are closing in on what would be only the fourth top-flight title in the club’s storied history.
Last week’s 1-0 victory at Lecce was Napoli’s fourth win on the spin and also marked their fourth consecutive clean sheet, underlining the side’s growing sense of control and confidence in both attack and defence. The Azzurri are now unbeaten in nine league matches (W6, D3) and have looked especially imperious on home soil.
Conte’s men have collected 23 of the last 27 points available at home (W7, D2), including four straight wins in front of their own supporters. Overall, Napoli have picked up 41 points from 17 home matches (W13, D2, L2), scoring 28 goals and conceding only 11—the best defensive record at home in Serie A this season. Their matches at the Maradona have typically been controlled affairs, with under 2.5 goals landing in 9 of 17 home fixtures.
Genoa, by contrast, have little left to play for. Patrick Vieira’s men sit in 13th place with 39 points, mathematically safe from relegation but well adrift of the European qualification spots. Their 2-1 defeat at home to AC Milan on Monday extended their losing streak to three games and further highlighted a lack of motivation and cutting edge as the season draws to a close.
Away from home, Genoa are winless in nine consecutive matches, having last tasted victory on the road back in December. They have taken just four points from that stretch (D4, L5), and crucially, they’ve failed to score in their last three away games. With only 11 goals scored and 21 conceded on the road this season, they are unlikely to threaten Napoli’s sturdy defence.
Head-to-Head
Napoli earned a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Their last meeting in Naples ended all square in a 1-1 draw, a result that saw both sides earn a point apiece.
Betting
Napoli 1/3
Draw 4/1
Genoa 10/1
Verdict
Napoli are on the brink of history and have shown no signs of slipping up, especially at home. Genoa arrive out of form and lacking motivation, especially on their travels. With four straight clean sheets and a title within touching distance, Conte’s side should deliver another disciplined display. Expect the leaders to do the business without reply.
Suggested Bet: Napoli to Win to Nil – Yes at 8/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
