Round 35 kicks off this weekend, and I’ve highlighted three key fixtures to focus on. Here are my thoughts and selections for you to consider.
Before doing so, here’s a quick update on the latest title odds. Napoli currently hold a three-point lead over Inter Milan with just four matches remaining and are the clear favourites to win the Scudetto at 1/5, with Inter priced at 33/10. The rest of the pack are a long way behind, with odds of 500/1 or greater.
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SATURDAY
LECCE v NAPOLI – Click here to bet
With just two points separating Lecce from the relegation zone, it has been a frustrating campaign for Marco Giampaolo’s side. Despite a spirited 1-1 draw away to Atalanta over the weekend, the Salentini remain winless in their last eleven league matches—a run that has placed significant pressure on the team. Having picked up just four points from a possible 33 during this stretch, it’s no surprise they find themselves in the thick of the relegation battle.
Currently sitting 17th in the standings with 27 points, Lecce have managed only six wins, alongside nine draws and nineteen defeats. Concerningly, they’ve scored the fewest goals in Serie A this season, finding the net just 24 times while conceding 56. Their home form has also been underwhelming, earning only 15 points at the Stadio Via del Mare, with just three wins from seventeen outings.
Meanwhile, Napoli can seemingly do no wrong at the moment. After Inter Milan slipped up against Roma over the weekend, Antonio Conte’s side took full advantage with a clinical 2-0 victory over Torino on Sunday, propelling Napoli to the top of the Serie A standings with 74 points—three clear of Inter with four matches remaining.
In terms of form, only Como can match Napoli’s recent run, with the Azzurri registering four wins and a draw in their last five league outings. They are currently unbeaten in their last eight Serie A matches, collecting 18 points from a possible 24. Defensively, they remain the strongest side in the division, having conceded just 25 goals across 34 matches.
Away from home, Napoli have been formidable, suffering just two defeats on the road all season and earning 33 points from a possible 51. They are unbeaten in their last three away fixtures, winning one and drawing two—while keeping clean sheets in two of those matches.
Head-to-Head
Napoli claimed a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, while last season’s meeting at the Stadio Via del Mare ended in a goalless draw. Lecce have failed to score in each of their last three encounters with Napoli, managing one draw and suffering two defeats during that run.
Betting
Lecce 11/2
Draw 16/5
Napoli 11/20
Verdict
I expect Napoli to maintain their three-point lead at the top after this weekend. Lecce have struggled to score in their last three meetings with Napoli, and with their ongoing issues in attack, I see the Azzurri comfortably getting the job done while keeping a clean sheet. Napoli’s strong form and solid defence should help them extend their unbeaten run and secure another important win to maintain their slender lead over Inter.
Suggested Bet: Napoli to Win to Nil – Yes at 13/10
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SUNDAY
AS ROMA v FIORENTINA – Click here to bet
AS Roma continue their charge for a top-four finish following last week’s impressive 1-0 victory away to Inter Milan. The Giallorossi, now 6th in the standings with 60 points from 34 matches, sit just two points behind fourth-placed Juventus, keeping their Champions League hopes well alive with four games to go. Claudio Ranieri’s side are unbeaten in their last six Serie A outings, winning four and drawing two, and have recorded a positive goal difference of +17, scoring 49 and conceding 32.
Roma have also been solid at home, collecting 35 points from 17 matches at the Stadio Olimpico despite four defeats. Remarkably, they are unbeaten in their last fifteen matches across all competitions in Rome, a run that includes 13 wins and two draws—highlighting their dominance on home turf.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, head to the capital in excellent form of their own. They secured a 2-1 win over Empoli last Sunday, marking back-to-back victories in Serie A and extending their unbeaten run to six matches—four wins and two draws. With 59 points, the Viola are just two adrift of Bologna, who currently occupy the final European qualification spot, making this encounter crucial for their continental aspirations.
Raffaele Palladino’s side have been exciting going forward, netting 53 goals and conceding 34. Their attacking style has led to high-scoring affairs, with 20 of their 34 matches featuring at least three goals. Away from home, Fiorentina have picked up 22 points from a possible 48, winning six, drawing four, and losing six. They are unbeaten in their last two league appearances on the road, drawing 2-2 with AC Milan and edging Cagliari 2-1.
Head-to-Head
Fiorentina secured a comprehensive 5-1 victory over AS Roma earlier this season and remain unbeaten in their last four meetings with the Giallorossi. That run includes last season’s corresponding fixture in Rome, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
Betting
AS Roma 7/10
Draw 29/10
Fiorentina 9/2
Verdict
Roma are flying at home, while Fiorentina have hit a great patch of form with goals flowing at both ends. With Champions League hopes on the line and both sides pushing for points, I expect both teams to contribute to the scoresheet in what should be a lively contest
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1/1
BOLOGNA v JUVENTUS – Click here to bet
Serie A heavyweights Bologna and Juventus go head-to-head in a pivotal clash that could shape the race for next season’s Champions League. With just four games left, only one point separates the two sides—Juventus sit fourth on 62 points, while Bologna trail closely in fifth with 61.
Bologna come into this encounter following a goalless draw away to Udinese on Monday evening. Although they extended their unbeaten run to two matches, the Rossoblù will view the result as a missed opportunity in such a tightly contested top-four battle. Still, Vincenzo Italiano’s men have been solid throughout the campaign, scoring 52 goals and conceding 37—an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Crucially, Bologna have turned the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara into a fortress. They are unbeaten in their last eleven home games in all competitions, winning nine and drawing two. In Serie A, they’ve claimed seven wins from their last eight matches on home soil, with the only blemish being a 1-1 draw against Napoli.
Juventus, meanwhile, responded to recent criticism with a clinical 2-0 win over Monza last weekend, keeping themselves just ahead in the standings. Igor Tudor’s side may have lacked consistency in patches this season, but they remain firmly in the hunt for a top-four finish. Like Bologna, they average 1.5 goals per game, having scored 51 and conceded 31 so far.
However, their away form is a concern. The Bianconeri are winless in their last three on the road, collecting just a single point while scoring only once and failing to find the net in two of those outings. That said, they’ve still been a tough nut to crack away from home, suffering just three defeats and earning 25 points from a possible 48 through six wins and seven draws.
Head-to-Head
These two sides have played out four consecutive score draws, including a 2-2 result in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Last season’s encounter at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara also ended 3-3, underlining the goal-filled and evenly contested nature of their recent meetings.
Betting
Bologna 15/10
Draw 21/10
Juventus 22/10
Verdict
Both teams are neck and neck in the table and have shared the points in each of their last four meetings, with goals at both ends every time. Bologna are flying at home, but Juventus know how to grind out results. This one feels like another high-stakes draw, with both teams likely to contribute to the score-sheet once again.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score – Draw and Yes at 7/2
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
