The stakes couldn’t be higher as we head into the UEFA Europa League semi-finals this Thursday, with just four teams remaining in the hunt for a place in the final in three weeks’ time. Here are my thoughts and betting suggestions for each first-leg clash.
Before diving into the match previews, here’s a quick look at the latest outright odds: Tottenham Hotspur are the current favourites at 17/10, with Athletic Bilbao close behind at 2/1. Manchester United are next at 85/40, while Bodo/Glimt continue to fly under the radar at 13/1.
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ATHLETIC BILBAO v MANCHESTER UNITED – Click here to bet
Athletic Bilbao will be looking to make the most of home advantage when they welcome Manchester United to San Mamés for Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first leg. The Basque outfit are seeking a first European final appearance since 2012, having impressed throughout their continental campaign.
Bilbao finished second in the initial group phase with six wins, one draw, and one defeat, before edging past AS Roma 4-3 on aggregate in the Round of 16 and overcoming Rangers 2-0 across two tight quarter-final legs. Ernesto Valverde’s side have been especially strong at home, remaining unbeaten at San Mamés in Europe this season (W6) while conceding just two goals across six matches.
Domestically, Athletic sit comfortably in fourth place in La Liga with Champions League qualification nearly secured, allowing them to focus fully on their European ambitions. They head into this clash unbeaten in nine of their last ten matches across all competitions, including a 1-0 win over Las Palmas last midweek, giving them the opportunity to freshen up and focus on the task at hand ahead of Manchester United’s visit on Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, Manchester United continue to look a shadow of their former selves on the domestic front, having salvaged just a point in a 1-1 draw away to Bournemouth over the weekend — only their second point from their last five league matches (D2, L3). The Red Devils now sit 14th in the Premier League with four games remaining. Given their league position, their only realistic route back into European competition next season is by winning the Europa League.
In contrast to their domestic struggles, United remain unbeaten in Europe this season, finishing third in the group phase with five wins and three draws. After qualifying directly for the Round of 16, Ruben Amorim’s side swept past Real Sociedad 5-2 on aggregate before edging out Lyon 5-4 after extra time in a dramatic quarter-final tie.
Their away form in Europe has been relatively solid, winning twice and drawing four of their six trips. Unbeaten on the road in continental competition this season, United will look to continue that trend with another positive result in Bilbao on Thursday, offering them the best possible platform ahead of next week’s second leg at Old Trafford.
Head-to-Head
These sides have met twice before in Europe, with Athletic Bilbao stunning Manchester United 5-3 on aggregate in the 2011/12 Europa League Round of 16, winning both legs.
Betting
Athletic Bilbao 21/20
Draw 12/5
Manchester United 28/10
Verdict
With Bilbao’s formidable home record and United’s unbeaten run in Europe, a tight and competitive first leg appears likely. A low-scoring draw is a strong possibility, but preference is given to the home side avoiding defeat in a game that may offer limited goalscoring opportunities. Bilbao will be difficult to break down on home soil, while United may look to keep things compact, aiming to settle the tie at Old Trafford in the return leg.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Athletic Bilbao/Draw and Under 2.5 at 23/20
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TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v BODO/GLIMT – Click here to bet
Tottenham Hotspur will look to seize the initiative when they host Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt in Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first leg. Spurs have been building momentum in Europe under Ange Postecoglou and now stand just two matches away from their first European final since the 2019 Champions League run.
Tottenham finished fourth in the group phase with five wins, two draws, and one defeat before edging past AZ Alkmaar 3-2 on aggregate in the Round of 16. They then survived a major scare in the quarter-finals, scraping past Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 on aggregate after a tense second leg. Home form has been key to Spurs’ progress, winning four of their six European matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season (W4, D2), while scoring 13 goals in the process.
Domestically, Spurs sit 16th in the Premier League with four matches remaining—safe from relegation but with little else to play for. With no realistic chance of qualifying for Europe through the league, they will be desperate to secure European silverware to guarantee a spot in continental competition next season. This makes the Europa League semi-final all the more crucial for Postecoglou’s side as they look to finish the campaign on a more positive note.
Bodo/Glimt enter this clash in strong domestic form. Relatively fresh in their new season, the reigning Norwegian champions have played just four matches but remain unbeaten with three wins and a draw, sitting second overall after a convincing 3-0 victory over KFUM Oslo at the weekend. This solid start in their domestic campaign gives them added confidence as they prepare for their toughest European test yet.
In Europe, Bodo/Glimt have been one of the competition’s surprise packages. After finishing 9th in the group phase with four wins, two draws, and two defeats, they stunned FC Twente 6-4 on aggregate in the knockout round before overcoming Olympiacos 4-2 in the Round of 16 and disposing of Lazio in the quarter-finals after a 3-3 draw, winning on penalties. The Norwegian side have won three of their last five European outings and will hope to continue punching above their weight in London this week.
However, Bodo/Glimt’s away form in Europe has been patchy, having lost their last three consecutive matches and winning just once in their last seven continental trips (W1, D2, L4). Facing a Spurs side desperate for redemption late in their campaign, they may find it difficult to keep things tight in North London.
Head-to-Head
This will be the first-ever competitive meeting between Tottenham Hotspur and Bodo/Glimt.
Betting
Tottenham Hotspur 2/7
Draw 5/1
Bodo/Glimt 9/1
Verdict
I fancy Spurs to win the first leg, but I wouldn’t rule out Bodo/Glimt getting on the scoresheet. Tottenham have struggled for consistency domestically but looked more assured in Europe. Even so, defensive issues remain and could be exploited by the visitors. Knockout ties often lean towards low-scoring affairs, but this one could buck the trend. Spurs should have the edge going into the second leg, though they may have to work for it and are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score – Tottenham and Yes at 33/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
