The Champions League quarter-final second legs continue on Wednesday, with Inter Milan hosting Bayern Munich holding a 2-1 lead, while Arsenal head to the Bernabéu after a dominant 3-0 first-leg win over Real Madrid. Here are my thoughts on both matchups—along with some betting options to consider.
As we gear up for the second legs, the outright market has shifted. Barcelona now lead the pack at 22/10, just ahead of Paris Saint-Germain at 9/4. Arsenal’s emphatic first-leg win sees their odds trimmed to 7/2, while Inter Milan follow at 13/2. The rest of the field trails behind, each priced at 14/1 or greater.
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INTER MILAN v BAYERN MUNICH – Click here to bet
Inter Milan return to the iconic San Siro on Wednesday night holding a slender but significant advantage over Bayern Munich, following a hard-fought 2-1 victory in the first leg at the Allianz Arena. It was a statement performance from Simone Inzaghi’s side—disciplined at the back, clinical up front, and tactically superior on the night.
Now back on home soil, the Nerazzurri have one foot in the semi-finals of the Champions League, and they’ll be confident of completing the job in front of a packed Meazza. Inter boast a near flawless home record in Europe this season, winning all five of their matches, conceding just one goal overall. Their defensive record has been nothing short of elite, with nine clean sheets from eleven matches in this campaign—the best in the competition by far.
For Bayern Munich, the road to Milan is steep and unforgiving. Vincent Kompany’s side were left to rue a string of missed chances in the first leg, including Harry Kane striking the post in what proved to be a night of fine margins. The Bundesliga leaders bounced back with a 2-2 draw against Borussia Dortmund domestically over the weekend, but will need a significantly better performance if they are to overturn the deficit in Italy this Wednesday evening.
Bayern have been formidable at home in Europe but less convincing on their travels, having lost three of their six away games in the competition this season. Defensively, they’ve managed just one clean sheet on the road—a worrying trend when facing an Inter side that thrives in tight, tactical battles.
Head-to-Head
Bayern and Inter have clashed eight times in the Champions League, with the German side narrowly leading the head-to-head with four victories. Inter’s 2-1 win in last week’s first leg marked their third success in the fixture, with just one of the previous encounters ending in a draw. Notably, however, Inter are still seeking their first home victory against Bayern in this competition.
Betting
Inter Milan 17/10
Draw 26/10
Bayern Munich 31/20
Verdict
Inter’s clinical edge and imperious home form could prove decisive once again. Bayern are likely to throw everything forward in search of a comeback, but the Nerazzurri’s disciplined structure and defensive resilience may well frustrate the Bavarians for a second successive week.
Suggested Bet: Totals – Under 2.5 at 11/10
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REAL MADRID v ARSENAL – Click here to bet
Real Madrid welcome Arsenal to the Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday night, needing nothing short of a miracle to keep their Champions League campaign alive. The Spanish giants were left reeling after a comprehensive 3-0 defeat in the first leg at the Emirates—a result that not only shocked many but now leaves them with a mammoth task on home soil.
The Champions League is no stranger to drama, especially in Madrid, where comeback stories have become part of the club’s folklore. But this tie presents a new level of difficulty. Real Madrid have never overturned a three-goal deficit in the knockout stages of this competition. If they are to rewrite history once more, it must begin with an early statement of intent at the Bernabéu.
Despite their reputation, this has been a stop-start European campaign for the defending champions, marked by five defeats in thirteen matches. However, performances at home tell a different story. Madrid have won five of their six home fixtures, scoring 19 goals and recording two victories by margins of three or more goals.
Arsenal, meanwhile, approach the second leg with confidence and clarity. The first-leg win in North London was among their most commanding European performances in recent memory—disciplined, composed, and tactically superior.
Momentum is on their side. Unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions, Arsenal have struck a consistent balance between control and cutting edge. Their Champions League campaign has included eight wins, two draws and just one defeat, a testament to their steady rise under the current regime.
Away from home, they have handled pressure well—three wins, one draw, and one loss on the road in Europe this season. That kind of form, combined with a three-goal advantage, puts them firmly in the driver’s seat heading into the return leg.
Head-to-Head
These two sides have met three times in total in the Champions League, with Arsenal unbeaten in all three encounters. Last week’s emphatic 3-0 victory marked their second win over Real Madrid, while the remaining fixture ended in a draw during the second leg of a Round of 16 tie in Madrid nearly two decades ago.
Betting
Real Madrid 7/10
Draw 16/5
Arsenal 7/2
Verdict
Real Madrid will push hard at the Bernabéu, but with a commanding first-leg lead and Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities, I think it’ll be another frustrating night for Ancelotti’s side, with the Gunners well-positioned to preserve their unbeaten run against Los Blancos.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance – Arsenal at 11/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
