This Thursday, international football takes centre stage as we dive into the first leg of the League A quarter-final playoffs. Below are our suggested betting markets and insights to consider.
Let’s start with the latest outright markets. Spain lead the way as favourites at 3/1, followed closely by Portugal and France at 7/2. Germany isn’t far behind at 4/1, while Italy rounds out the top contenders at 17/2. The rest of the field sits at 14/1 or higher, keeping the race wide open.
Click here for the latest Outright Odds as well as Group Betting
DENMARK v PORTUGAL– Click here to bet
Denmark and Portugal go head-to-head at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen this Thursday, with a place in Group F of the World Cup Qualifiers at stake. The winner will join Hungary, the Republic of Ireland, and Armenia, while the loser will be placed in Group C alongside Greece, Scotland, and Belarus.
Denmark secured their quarter-final spot by finishing second in Group A4 with eight points (W2, D2, L2), wrapping up their campaign with a goalless draw against Serbia. Their solid defensive foundation, led by goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel, has been instrumental in their progress. At home, they’ve earned six points from three matches (W2, L1), conceding just twice. However, their recent form will be a concern, having failed to win any of their last four matches (D2, L2), with two draws and two defeats leading up to this clash. Christian Eriksen’s experience in midfield will be crucial, while Denmark will be hoping that Jesper Lindstrøm and Rasmus Højlund rediscover their form to bolster their attacking threat in the first leg.
Portugal, meanwhile, enter this match full of confidence after topping their group with 14 points (W4, D2, L0). Roberto Martínez’s side showcased their attacking firepower with a 5-1 thrashing of Poland before wrapping up the group phase with a 1-1 draw away to Croatia. Unbeaten on the road (W2, D1), Portugal boast a squad packed with talent, including seasoned stars like Cristiano Ronaldo, João Félix, and Bruno Fernandes. With their firepower and fluid attacking play, they have the ability to take control of any game.
Head-to-Head
Portugal narrowly defeated Denmark 1-0 in their most recent encounter in 2015 and have historically held the upper hand, winning all three meetings by a single goal margin.
Betting
Denmark 23/10
Draw 95/40
Portugal 5/4
Verdict
With both teams being defensively disciplined, I expect a tight contest in the first leg. While Denmark’s home advantage is worth considering, Portugal’s superior quality should see them return home in a strong position, avoiding the need to chase the game in the second leg.
Suggested Bet: Totals – Under 2.5 at 15/20
CROATIA v FRANCE– Click here to bet
Croatia hosts France at Stadion Poljud in Split on Thursday, with the winner earning a spot in Group D alongside Ukraine, Iceland, and Azerbaijan. The loser will be placed in Group L alongside Czechia, Montenegro, the Faroe Islands, and Gibraltar.
Croatia secured their quarter-final spot by finishing second in Group A1 with 8 points by registering a 1-1 draw against Portugal in their final group match (W2, D2, L2). Their home form has been solid, remaining unbeaten with two wins and a draw, conceding just twice. Despite an aging squad, Croatia has proven difficult to break down on their home turf, thanks in part to the leadership of key veterans like Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić at the helm.
France, on the other hand, topped Group A2 with 13 points (W4, D1, L1), securing first place thanks to their impressive 3-1 victory away to Italy on the final match day of the group phase. Boasting an impeccable away record in this competition, having won all three of their group-stage matches on the road, they will fancy their chances of grabbing an advantage going into the second leg. With an attack averaging three goals per game away from home and a solid defence, France presents a formidable challenge. Their squad is filled with youthful energy, including stars like Warren Zaïre-Emery, Marcus Thuram, and William Saliba, alongside experienced players such as Kylian Mbappé (86 caps) leading the charge.
Head-to-Head
Interestingly, Croatia have had the upper hand in recent meetings, remaining unbeaten in their last two encounters. They secured a 1-1 draw before earning an impressive 1-0 away win in 2022.
Betting
Croatia 5/2
Draw 12/5
France 23/20
Verdict
I expect a tactical battle that is likely to yield few goals. With France’s attacking firepower facing off against Croatia’s resilience, it will be intriguing to see which side cracks first. In what is often a hostile environment, the French will likely be content with a draw heading back to France. However, I’ll be focusing on another market, which should land if France manages to avoid defeat in the first leg.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Draw/France and Under 3.5 at 15/20
Get your money back if your team loses to an injury time penalty.
Introducing Tough Luck Insurance from World Sports Betting. Bet on football matches with confidence, and if your team loses to an injury time penalty, we’ll return your stake as free bets.
*Valid for Pre-Match and Live in Play events up to 90 Mins.
T’s & C’s apply. Refund/Payout limited to R5000. Single/Straight bets only.
Free Bets do not qualify for this offer. Limited to 1 refund per customer per event.
Simply email promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘ Tough Luck Insurance ’
NETHERLANDS v SPAIN – Click here to bet
The Netherlands take on Spain at De Kuip in Rotterdam on Thursday, with a spot in Group E alongside Turkey, Georgia, and Bulgaria on the line. The losing side will be placed in Group G with Poland, Finland, Lithuania, and Malta.
The Netherlands finished second in Group A3 with 9 points (W2, D3, L1), with their most recent match ending in a 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina. They remain unbeaten on home soil in this tournament, having found the back of the net 11 times across their three matches. Their ability to adapt tactically and exploit opponents’ weaknesses could be crucial, and with the likes of Matthijs de Ligt, Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, and Cody Gakpo at Ronald Koeman’s disposal, it raises the question of why draws were so prevalent in their group stage encounters.
Reigning European champions Spain have continued their dominance in the UEFA Nations League, topping Group A4 with 16 points (W5, D1, L0). Their unbeaten run was capped off with a thrilling 3-2 victory over Switzerland on match day six. Their away form has been equally impressive, winning twice and drawing once. The Spaniards are averaging two goals per game on the road while conceding just twice. With young talents like Marc Casado, Pedri, and Lamine Yamal making their mark, manager Luis de la Fuente’s emphasis on collective attacking play could pose a serious challenge for the Dutch over the two-legged playoffs.
Head-to-Head
The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with Spain, winning five and drawing two. However, it’s worth noting that their most recent encounter, which took place in 2020, ended in a 1-1 draw.
Betting
Netherlands 21/10
Draw 95/40
Spain 27/20
Verdict
With a potent attack and strong form on the road, Spain will be tough to beat. However, the Netherlands’ home advantage and attacking flair could make this a highly entertaining match.
Suggested Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 8/10
ITALY v GERMANY– Click here to bet
Italy and Germany meet at the iconic San Siro in Milan this Thursday, with the winner advancing to Group A alongside Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg. The loser will be placed in Group I alongside Norway, Israel, Estonia, and Moldova.
Italy finished second in Group A2 with 13 points (W4, D1, L1), falling short of topping the group at the final hurdle after suffering a 3-1 defeat at home to France on the last match day of the group phase. While their attack has shown promise overall, uncharacteristically for the Italians, it has been defensive lapses that have cost them—particularly at home, where they won just once while conceding six goals across three matches (W1, D1, L1). The Azzurri will need to tighten up defensively if they are to challenge Germany this week. However, with an improving squad featuring the likes of Riccardo Calafiori, Sandro Tonali, Moise Kean, and Giacomo Raspadori, Luciano Spalletti’s side appears to be heading in the right direction.
Germany enters this match with an impressive record in Group A3, finishing first with 14 points (W4, D2, L0). They also recorded the highest goal tally in the group phase, netting 18 times. However, they ended the group stage on a less convincing note, salvaging a 1-1 draw away to Hungary on the final matchday. While their defence has shown some weaknesses, their attacking prowess remains their biggest strength. Die Mannschaft will be without key figures Toni Kroos, Thomas Müller, Manuel Neuer, and Ilkay Gündogan, who all retired from international duty, possibly leaving a significant void heading into this epic clash.
Head-to-Head
Italy and Germany share a rich footballing history, with Italy holding a slight edge in competitive encounters. In their last five meetings in major tournaments, Italy have won twice, Germany once, and the sides have drawn twice. Their most recent encounter saw Germany claim a comprehensive 5-2 victory, giving them the bragging rights heading into this clash.
Betting
Italy 18/10
Draw 23/10
Germany 33/20
Verdict
Given Italy’s defensive concerns and Germany’s attacking prowess, the logical approach would be to back the visitors. However, as we’ve learned over the years, it’s rarely that straightforward! With big shoes to fill, Germany could adopt a more cautious approach, considering the magnitude of the encounter. Meanwhile, Italy, determined to address their defensive flaws, may have a strong response. This sets the stage for a scenario where both teams could potentially walk away with a share of the spoils, leaving everything to play for in the second leg.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result – Draw at 23/10
Click here for betting on all of this week’s international matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
