This Thursday, we take a look at two enticing first-leg ties set to take place in the UEFA Europa League, with a place in the Round of 16 up for grabs. Here are our suggested betting markets and additional insights for you to consider for each match.
First, let’s take a look at the latest outright market odds. Manchester United are the current favourites at 9/2, with Tottenham Hotspur at 5/1. Athletic Bilbao follow at 11/2, while Lazio are priced at 7/1. The rest of the field is listed at 10/1 or greater.
Click here for all the latest Europa League Outright Betting
FENERBAHÇE v ANDERLECHT – Click here to bet
Fenerbahçe enter Thursday’s clash looking to take full advantage at home as they aim to progress further in the Europa League. The Turkish giants secured their place in the playoff round by the skin of their teeth, finishing in 24th place with 10 points from eight matches. Their campaign included an impressive 2-1 away win over Slavia Prague but also a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Athletic Bilbao on match day six. These inconsistencies, particularly at home, proved to be the main reason they missed out on automatic qualification to the Round of 16.
Domestically, Fenerbahçe are in fine form, sitting second in the Turkish Super Lig, just three points adrift of league leaders Galatasaray. This follows their 2-0 win away to Alanyaspor over the weekend, a result that extended their unbeaten streak to twelve matches (9 wins, 3 draws) in all competitions. They’ve been particularly strong at home, winning eight of their last ten games. However, they will be well aware of their recent record in Europe, where they have lost four of their last six first-leg ties in major European knockout encounters, suggesting that this fixture may not be as straightforward as their recent home form suggests.
Meanwhile, Anderlecht fell just short of automatic qualification, finishing 10th in the overall standings in the group phase, separated only by goal difference from progressing to the Round of 16. A heartbreaking 4-3 defeat at home to Hoffenheim on the final day of the group phase sealed their fate. That said, they have another opportunity this weekend to make their case in the first-leg playoff. Having lost just once on the road this season in Europe, the Belgian club will certainly fancy their chances in the overall tie, despite a rather grim record against Turkish giants Fenerbahçe
Domestically, Anderlecht occupy fourth place in the Jupiler Pro League, 15 points adrift of league leaders Genk. Their most recent fixture resulted in a 2-0 win at home to Antwerp over the weekend. However, having secured just one victory in their last four appearances across all competitions (W1, D1, L2) will be cause for concern. This will be Anderlecht’s third trip to Fenerbahçe, a fixture in which they have had little success, having failed to register a single goal previously in Istanbul. This season, however, their away form in Europe appears to be significantly better, having found the back of the net five times and failing to score just once in their four group-phase away matches. They will be hoping for a marked improvement in their recent record in Turkey when they visit Istanbul this Thursday.
Head-to-Head
These two sides have crossed paths in European competition four times overall since 2018, with Fenerbahçe holding a dominant record. The Turkish club has won three times, while Anderlecht are yet to claim a victory, having drawn 2-2 in the other meeting.
Betting
Fenerbahçe 5/10
Draw 15/4
Anderlecht 5/1
Verdict
Despite a rather unsavoury record in Europe this campaign, I do think the hosts will rise to the occasion in the first leg. Anderlecht do appear to be more positive in their approach on the road, which could lead to quite an entertaining encounter in Istanbul. That said, given their poor record overall in Turkey, I will take my chances in backing the hosts to win with at least two goals to feature this Thursday.
Suggested Bet: Result and Total – Fenerbahçe & Over 1.5 Goals at 8/11
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FC PORTO v AS ROMA – Click here to bet
FC Porto welcome AS Roma at the Estádio do Dragão in a crucial Europa League playoff first-leg clash, with both sides aiming to secure a place in the Round of 16. Porto finished 18th in the overall group phase standings with 11 points, while Roma secured 15th place with 12 points, highlighting how little separated these two teams earlier in the competition.
Domestically, Porto sit third in the Primeira Liga following a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Sporting Lisbon last Friday. However, their defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern, as they have managed just one clean sheet in their last eight matches across all competitions. With home advantage in this first leg, the Portuguese side will look to seize control of the tie, knowing that any lead will put them in a strong position for the return leg. That said, Porto’s record in major European knockout fixtures is far from convincing, with just five wins from their last 25 such games (W5, D4, L16). They will need to be at their best to overcome Roma and improve their underwhelming record in Europe.
Meanwhile, AS Roma progressed to the knockout rounds after a mixed group-stage campaign. Their Europa League run included moments of brilliance—such as a commanding 3-0 victory over Braga—but also setbacks, including a 1-0 defeat to AZ Alkmaar on Match day 7. Domestically, Roma have struggled for consistency and currently sit ninth in Serie A, eight points adrift of the European qualification spots. However, they returned to winning ways in Italy with a 1-0 away victory over Venezia this past weekend, a result they will hope to build on heading into Thursday’s clash.
Much like Porto, Roma have struggled to impose themselves in Europe, particularly away from home in this tournament. The Giallorossi have won just three of their last 19 Europa League away matches, and with no victories in this season’s competition on the road (D2, L2), they may be content with avoiding defeat in Portugal before returning to the Stadio Olimpico for the second leg.
Head-to-Head
These two sides have met four times in European competition, with Porto holding the upper hand. The Portuguese club have lost just once against Roma (W2, D1, L1), including a 4-3 aggregate victory in favour of FC Porto in the 2018/19 Champions League Round of 16.
Betting
FC Porto 29/20
Draw 12/5
AS Roma 39/20
Verdict
Despite Porto’s defensive frailties, I expect a tightly contested battle with limited goalmouth action. Roma’s away struggles in Europe remain a concern, and with so much at stake, Ranieri’s side would be satisfied with any positive result. However, I do expect the hosts to take something from the game, though goals may be at a premium.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – FC Porto/Draw and Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11.
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
