With three teams still vying to secure their final positions ahead of the last round, we analyse both matches in League A Group 1, providing insights and betting perspectives for your consideration.
Before we proceed, let’s take a look at the current outright prices on offer. Spain, the European champions, continue to lead the way at 3/1, with Germany and Portugal just behind at 4/1. France are priced at 9/2, while Italy have been gaining traction at 6/1. The rest of the teams are listed at 12/1 or greater.
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POLAND v SCOTLAND– Click here to bet
Last week’s heavy 5-1 defeat away to Portugal has left Poland in 3rd place on the table with just 4 points. As they head into the final round, the Eagles will be acutely aware that their fate may be out of their hands in terms of securing a quarter-final berth. However, with relegation still a possibility, they will be determined to avoid that at all costs. Survival in the top flight will be their main objective, and they will be hoping to improve their home record, where they have earned just the 1 point so far this campaign, a 3-3 draw against Croatia. Despite mixed results as hosts, they are averaging 2 goals per game in Warsaw and will feel relatively confident they can secure a positive result against a Scottish side that has yet to register a point away from home this campaign.
Scotland’s 1-0 victory at home against Croatia last week marked their first win of the campaign, a result that has certainly stirred things up heading into the final round of the group phase. Facing the threat of relegation, Steve Clarke’s side now has a chance to progress to the quarter-finals, despite sitting in last place with just 4 points. However, they will need some luck to achieve this, as they require maximum points in Warsaw and a Portugal victory away to Croatia in order to achieve that. Scotland’s away form has been problematic, with two consecutive defeats on the road. Despite failing to secure any points away from home, Scotland have made life difficult for their hosts, losing by just a one-goal margin in both defeats, with a 2-1 score line on each occasion. With everything to play for, Scotland’s fate now hinges on securing a crucial win—knowing that nothing less will suffice.
Head-to-Head
These sides have met 12 times in total, with the draw dominating the record, accounting for 6 of those encounters. Poland have secured 4 wins, while Scotland have won just 2. Their most recent encounter ended in a thrilling 3-2 victory for Poland at Hampden Park in Glasgow during the opening round of this season’s UEFA Nations League campaign.
Betting
Poland 5/4
Draw 26/10
Scotland 9/4
Verdict
With plenty at stake for both sides, it will be interesting to see how they approach the game. Scotland will be well aware that anything less than a win will see them relegated, while Poland will want to avoid defeat to escape the same fate. Scotland have scored in both their away games, and with Poland yet to keep a clean sheet at home and averaging 2 goals per game in Warsaw this campaign, both teams are likely to score
Suggested Bet: Both Teams To Score, Yes at 8/10
CROATIA v PORTUGAL – Click here to bet
Last term’s runners-up, Croatia, are yet to confirm their place in the next phase of the UEFA Nations League. Zlatko Dalić’s side currently sit second in the group standings with 7 points but missed the opportunity to book their spot in the quarter-finals last week, suffering a shock 1-0 defeat away to Scotland on match day 5. They will, however, have another opportunity this Monday when they host Portugal at Stadion Poljud, knowing that a draw will be enough to see them through. With the visitors having already secured top spot with a game to spare, the ‘Checkered Ones’ will be hoping motivation will sway momentum heavily in their favour, as Roberto Martínez’s side enter round 6 with little at stake. Averaging 1.4 goals per game in the competition, Croatia will fancy their chances of progressing, particularly given their defensive resilience at home, where they have conceded just once in this campaign so far.
Having secured top spot in their group with a game to spare following a commanding 5-1 victory over Poland on Friday, Roberto Martínez’s Portugal can now consider rotating their squad for the final match of the group phase. Unbeaten throughout their campaign, Portugal have amassed an impressive 13 points from a possible 15, with four wins and one draw underscoring their dominance. Martínez, the former Belgium coach, has had an immediate impact on the Lusitanians. While a result in this match isn’t essential for their progression, maintaining an unbeaten record heading into the quarter-finals provides strong motivation and helps sustain their momentum. Portugal’s campaign has been characterized by excellence at both ends of the pitch, with 12 goals scored and just 4 conceded—the best figures in the group, perhaps offering a stern reminder to Croatia of what to expect this coming Monday.
Head-to-Head
These sides have met 9 times in total, with Portugal dominating the record, boasting 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Portugal in the opening round of this season’s UEFA Nations League campaign.
Betting
Croatia 18/10
Draw 23/10
Portugal 13/8
Verdict
I quite like the prospect of a draw here, as both teams will likely be content with that outcome. It would allow Croatia to progress alongside Portugal into the quarter-finals, while also preserving Portugal’s unbeaten record heading into the knockout phase—a win-win scenario for both sides.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result, Draw at 23/10
Click here for betting on all of this week’s matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
