After Monday’s rest day we have Stage 16, a flat stage, starting on Tuesday in Gruissan and finishing 188.6 kilometres away in Nîmes.
Stage 15 Wrap
We were treated to another incredible stage in the Pyrenees and once again the breakaway was caught and the General Classification contenders fought for the stage.
I had expected Jonas Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike team to ride conservatively in the early parts of the stage before turning up the heat, but they kept the pace high from the start hoping to weaken Pogacar and, in so doing, keep the break on a tight leash. Vingegaard used his team to set a ferocious pace up the final climb before attacking with Pogacar on his wheel. Vingegaard rode hard, hoping that Pogacar would fall away, but when he showed his first sign of weakness with 5 kilometres to go, it was the Yellow Jersey who attacked and rode away to win the stage by 1.08 with Remco Evenepoel coming in third 2.51 down.
Jersey Update
Pogacar now leads Vingegaard by 3 minutes 9 seconds and he is in to 1/12 to win the Tour de France with Vingegaard 8/1.
Biniam Girmay retains a strong hold on the Green Jersey leading Philipsen by 86 points and he is 3/50 to wear that jersey in Nice.
With that win Pogacar also took a 19 point lead in the King of the Mountains classification with Vingegaard in 2nd and Evenepoel in 3rd. He has now shortened to 11/20 to win the Polka Dots.
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STAGE 16 ROUTE
There is only one classified climb on this 188.6 kilometre route and it is 1.2 kilometres at 5%, although there is what looks a bigger climb just before the sprint, which takes place after 98 kilometres. The sprinter teams will be determined to bring this back together for a bunch gallop as this is potentially their last chance in the Tour, but potential cross-winds and tired legs might mean we get a strong break that has a chance of succeeding.
STAGE 16 TACTICS
Although the riders are coming off a rest day there must be some tired legs after two hard weeks and a weekend in the Pyrenees. I suspect that some of the sprinter teams may try and put riders in the break to take the pressure off them chasing and if the likes of Van Der Poel and Matthews infiltrate the break, I think it has a decent chance of staying clear. Philipsen looks a worthy favourite here and his team will probably bet on him and I suspect it will come all back together for the sprint.
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STAGE 16 BETTING – Click here to bet
Jasper Philipsen – 12/10
Biniam Girmay – 9/2
Wout Van Aert – 6/1
Dylan Groenewegen – 11/1
Mark Cavendish – 12/1
Pascal Ackermann – 16/1
Arnaud De Lie – 18/1
Odds subject to change
PREDICTION
The break will be caught much later than usual but it will be chased down and Philipsen will win his 3rd stage.
BET: Philipsen win at 12/10 – remember the money back for 2nd promo – details above
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