We take a look at all three URC quarter-finals taking place this Saturday including the Bulls v Benetton at Loftus Versfeld and suggest a bet in each game.
Let’s start with a quick update on the Outright Betting. Leinster remains the favourite at 4/6, with defending champions Munster currently offered at 9/2. The Bulls have experienced a slight drift to 5/1, while the Stormers and the rest of the chasing pack can be backed at 12/1 or better.
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BULLS v BENETTON – Click here to bet
The Vodacom Bulls welcome Benetton to Fortress Loftus Versfeld this weekend, aiming to secure a home semi-final in Saturday’s late afternoon kick-off. With 13 wins and 5 losses, the Bulls clinched 2nd place in the round stages, trailing just 2 points behind the eventual log leaders and defending URC champions, Munster. Their impressive 26-14 victory away against the Sharks last weekend secured the SA shield as well as their fourth consecutive win in the competition en route to the knockout stages. The Bulls have lost just once at home throughout the tournament and will certainly fancy their chances of progressing to the next phase given their record against Benetton.
Having finished 7th in the round stages, Benetton will have to endure the Loftus faithful this Saturday—a daunting task, given that the Italian club has yet to register a win in Pretoria and has suffered some heavy defeats at the hands of the Bulls. That being said, with 11 wins, 1 draw, and 6 defeats, Benetton has certainly impressed many throughout their journey to this point—a vast improvement from last season. Last week’s 31-6 bonus point victory over Edinburgh secured their place in the knockout stages, but they will face a much tougher prospect in the Highveld, knowing they have only registered one win in their last five URC away games.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Benetton has lost all three URC matches against the Bulls, including their most recent encounter, a 56-35 defeat two weeks ago in Pretoria.
HANDICAP: Bulls -18.5
VERDICT
The Bulls have averaged a winning margin of 20 points against Benetton, so the books have set this line pretty much where I expected it to be. However, given that the hosts have covered this line on every occasion, they look like the way to go despite the magnitude of Saturday’s encounter. Jake White’s men should have too much quality for Benetton to handle, and I’m expecting another clinical display from the home team.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Bulls -18.5 at 19/20
Vodacom Bulls vs Benetton
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LEINSTER v ULSTER – Click here to bet
Leinster returned to the URC last week after a 22-31 loss to Toulouse in the European Champions Cup Final. Despite a disappointing period for the Irish team, the eight-time league winners bounced back emphatically with a 33-7 win over Connacht this past Friday, despite making wholesale changes to the squad. Finishing 3rd on the log with 13 wins and 5 defeats, Leinster secured a home quarter-final where they will aim to secure their place in this year’s semi-finals of the United Rugby Championship.
Ulster will visit Aviva Stadium this Saturday, looking to upset the establishment once again, having already beaten Leinster twice in earlier rounds of this tournament. Despite achieving the double over their Irish counterparts, they are well aware that in previous rounds, Leinster played a heavily diluted team, which will not be the case this Saturday. Ulster enter the knockout stages having finished 6th on the log with 11 wins and 7 defeats. Their most recent encounter resulted in a 29-24 defeat away to Munster, marking their sixth defeat in nine away games.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Ulster have managed to win four of the last six URC encounters between these two teams. Their most recent encounter resulted in a narrow 23-21 victory for Ulster in round 17 last month.
HANDICAP: Leinster -16.5
VERDICT
Leinster has been dominant at the Aviva Stadium, winning 8 out of 9 matches. Interestingly, their only loss was to Saturday’s opponents, Ulster. In recent head-to-head matchups, Leinster has struggled to decisively beat Ulster. At the current handicap line, Ulster would have come out on top in their last six URC encounters and eight overall in all competitions against Leinster.
While the hosts should be far too good for the visitors, the handicap makes it a slightly more even playing field. Therefore, my preference would be a tentative call on Ulster with the plus.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Ulster +16.5 at 17/20
GLASGOW v STORMERS – Click here to bet
With 13 wins and 5 defeats in the group rounds, Glasgow secured 4th spot, thus obtaining the last crucial position for a home quarter-final. Friday’s 38-26 home victory over Zebre meant that Glasgow returned to winning ways, having suffered back-to-back defeats on South African soil prior to that. The hosts managed to win all nine of their home games in the competition, including a 20-9 victory over this weekend’s opponents, the Stormers, back in November. This Saturday, the hosts can make it three in a row against the Stormers as they aim to secure their place in the semi-finals.
The Stormers will make their way to Scotstoun Stadium hoping to settle the score from their most recent trip to Scotland. Having suffered a 20-9 defeat back in November, the boys from Cape Town return to Europe knowing they have now lost twice consecutively when visiting Glasgow. Form-wise, the Stormers have won their last four games in a row, with their most recent match resulting in a hard-fought 29-24 win over the Lions back at home, taking their overall tally to 12 wins and 6 defeats in the group rounds.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Glasgow have won their last two head-to-head encounters against the Stormers by a margin of 11 points or less, with their most recent matchup resulting in a 20-9 win. However, their sole visit to Cape Town resulted in a 32-7 drubbing at the hands of the Stormers back in September 2022.
HANDICAP: Glasgow -2.5
VERDICT
This encounter is undoubtedly the hardest game to call this weekend. However, with the hosts yet to taste defeat at Scotstoun Stadium in this competition, and given that the Stormers are not the best travellers, my preference is for Glasgow. The Stormers have yet to register a win when visiting Glasgow. Therefore, I’m backing a narrow home win by the smallest of margins, opting for an alternative line in the additional handicap market.
Suggested Bet: Additional Handicap 2 Way, Glasgow -1.5 at 8/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
