With top-flight survival as the key motivator going into the last day of Serie A, we take a look at three encounters taking place this weekend where we suggest a bet in each game.
SATURDAY 25 MAY
AC MILAN v US SALERNITANA– Click here to bet
AC Milan will host US Salernitana at the San Siro this Saturday, with the aim of ending their campaign on a positive note. The Rossoneri have faced challenges with their form in recent weeks, securing just one win in their last eight outings across all competitions. However, domestically, they have clinched second place, solidifying their spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League campaign alongside Inter Milan, Bologna, Juventus, and likely Atalanta. Despite their inconsistencies, AC Milan’s achievement of securing a top-two finish domestically reflects the team’s resilience and determination throughout the season.
AC Milan have averaged 1.94 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 83% of their last 6 encounters overall (5 out of 6).
US Salernitana will make their final visit to the San Siro before embarking on their Serie B journey next season. With their fate sealed for quite some time now, the Garnets, have endured a dismal campaign, managing to secure maximum points just twice this season. Despite their best efforts, they have been unable to string together positive results, resulting in their position at the bottom of the table. Their tally of a mere 16 points puts them on the brink of entering the record books for the lowest points in top-flight football, a statistic they would undoubtedly prefer to avoid this weekend.
US Salernitana have averaged 0.67 goals per game away from home this season, with over 2.5 arriving in 67% of their last 6 encounters overall (4 out of 6).
Head-to-Head
The reverse fixture resulted in an entertaining 2-2 draw earlier this season with both teams having to settle for another draw in this fixture last season, finishing 1-1 on the day.
Both teams will enter their last game very much out of form at present, but my preference will be with the hosts here. Having scored just 12 times on the road this season, AC Milan should have enough quality and depth to contain US Salernitana at the San Siro.
Suggested Bet: AC Milan Win To Nil, yes at 12/10
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SUNDAY 26 MAY
EMPOLI v AS ROMA– Click here to bet
Relegation favourites, Empoli, will have one objective in mind when hosting AS Roma this Sunday at Stadio Carlo Castellani, to win at all costs. The Blues know they will have one more opportunity to climb out of the bottom three. Should they achieve maximum points, they will confirm their status in next season’s top-flight football. Currently 18th on the table, Empoli are 1 point behind Udinese, 2 points behind Frosinone, and 3 points behind Cagliari, respectively. Such are the fine lines going into the last day of Serie A. However, given that Frosinone will be hosting Udinese at the same time, Empoli will understand that all three points will be enough to secure their place for next season’s Serie A campaign.
Empoli have averaged 0.72 goals per game at home this season, with under 2.5 goals arriving in 100% of their last 6 encounters overall (6 out of 6).
AS Roma will travel to Empoli in what could prove to be a season-changing encounter. Currently positioned 6th on the league table, the Giallorossi find themselves with only a slim three-point margin separating them from Atalanta, and a goal difference of 10 working against them. Their hopes for securing a coveted spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League are hanging by a thread. Should they fail to bridge this gap, Roma may find themselves settling for a place in the Europa League instead. Despite their aspirations, Roma’s recent form has left much to be desired. Over the past month, they have struggled to find consistency, managing just one victory in their last five outings across all competitions.
AS Roma have averaged 1.44 goals per game away from home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 50% of those encounters (3 out of 6).
Head-to-Head
Roma won the reverse fixture 7-0 earlier this season, with Roma emerging victorious 2-1 in this fixture last season.
Roma are unlikely to do the hosts any favours given they have their own personal objectives they will want to achieve here. Empoli have faced difficulties upfront throughout the season, managing to score just 13 goals at home. At odds of 1/1, they look a little short in price considering their overall performances. Taking a chance on the visitors to extend their already impressive winning streak against Empoli seems like value, knowing they’ve managed to win their last eight head-to-head encounters in a row.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result, AS Roma at 11/4
FROSINONE v UDINESE– Click here to bet
An epic clash between relegation candidates takes centre stage this Sunday at the Stadio Benito Stirpe. Hosts Frosinone currently occupy 16th spot on the table and hold a slender 1-point lead over their opponents this weekend. Should the hosts avoid defeat, they will achieve their main objective of surviving top-flight football since qualifying from Serie B last season. The Canaries have shown their mettle of late and look determined to avoid the dreaded drop. Frosinone have enjoyed an unbeaten run of seven in their last eight league encounters, securing all three points away to Monza in their most recent outing. With so much on the line, the Canaries will have home ground advantage, which could prove to be the difference this Sunday.
Frosinone have averaged 1.56 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 50% of their last 6 encounters overall (3 out of 6).
Udinese finds themselves on the brink as they enter the final day of the season positioned 17th on the log, clinging to a slender 1-point lead over Empoli, who currently sit in the relegation zone. The stakes couldn’t be higher, as a draw might just be enough to see Udinese secure their place in the top flight for another season. The Bianconeri enter this decisive match on the back of a commendable four-game unbeaten run, during which they managed to collect 6 crucial points from a possible 12. Despite their recent resilience, Udinese has shown a tendency to settle for draws, having shared the spoils in three of their last four league matches. While this might indicate a degree of consistency, it also highlights their struggles to convert draws into wins, a factor that could prove pivotal in determining their fate on the final day.
Udinese have averaged 0.83 goals per game away from home this season, with under 2.5 goals arriving in 83% of their last 6 encounters overall (5 out of 6).
Head-to-Head
These two had to settle for a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
With so much on the line for both teams, neither side can afford a loss here. Both teams have been involved in quite a few draws of late, and given the significance of the occasion, this could potentially be another nail-biting affair. A draw would benefit the hosts more here, and given that I cannot see them losing on the day, a chance is taken on both settling for a point apiece.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result, Draw at 23/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
