There are three EPL fixtures taking place this Sunday and we analyse them and suggest a bet for each one.
*Please note that this weekend’s outright markets and league positions in the preview below are subject to change following this week’s English Premier League schedule on Friday, May 3rd, 2024*
Before proceeding, let’s investigate the odds on the Outright Markets heading into Thursdays action. Manchester City have shortened to 37/100 to successfully defend their title, with Arsenal priced firmly at 22/10. Liverpool continues to drift and can be snapped up at 200/1.
Click here for English Premier League Outright Betting
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION v ASTON VILLA– Click here to bet
This Sunday, Brighton will welcome Aston Villa to the Amex Stadium. Currently occupying 12th spot on the log, they aim to regain some much-needed momentum to conclude this season’s campaign on a more positive note. The Seagulls have fallen far below their usual standards and currently resemble a mere shadow of their former selves. With a winless streak of six matches, Brighton’s last victory dates back to March 10th, resulting in just two points out of a potential eighteen since then. Their recent 3-0 loss to Bournemouth underscores their current struggles. However, Brighton’s home form presents a stark contrast, with 7 wins, 6 draws, and only 3 losses at the Amex Stadium.
Brighton have averaged 1.75 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 62.5% of those encounters (10 out of 16)
Aston Villa will visit the Amex Stadium brimming with confidence. Despite last weekend’s hiccup resulting in a 2-2 draw at home against Chelsea, the Villains currently find themselves 4th on the table and will look to pounce this Sunday, knowing their opposition is currently in poor form. Having played two more games than their closest rivals on the table, Spurs, they are well aware that anything less than maximum points could seriously hamper their chances of securing their place in next season’s Champions League campaign. Should Villa win their remaining three fixtures, they will guarantee their place in Europe’s most elite competition. Away from home, Aston Villa boast the fourth-best record in the league, having registered 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats to date.
Aston Villa have averaged 1.64 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 64.7% of those encounters (11 out of 17)
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa won the reverse fixture 6-1 earlier this season with Aston Villa winning 2-1 in this fixture last season.
Verdict
Brighton may not be in the best of form, but their home record has to be respected. Aston Villa are undoubtedly in better shape at the moment, but have been guilty of conceding goals this season. With both teams finding the net in 24 of Aston Villa’s 35 league appearances, it’s an angle worth considering. However, I do think the visitors will walk away with something in this game, so combining the two looks the way to go.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to score, Draw/Aston Villa and yes at 19/20
CHELSEA v WEST HAM– Click here to bet
With one point separating the pair, Chelsea will host West Ham at Stamford Bridge, knowing that three points will see them leapfrog their opponents on the log. Currently 9th on the table, the Blues have not quite reached the sort of heights many expected from them this season. With European qualification looking unlikely, Pochettino will have his work cut out for him as the gap between ‘smaller’ clubs continues to shorten each season. Last weekend’s 2-2 draw away to Aston Villa was a step in the right direction, but their inability to defend is certainly a cause for concern, having conceded an average of 2.25 goals in their last 12 league appearances. At home, Chelsea’s current record reflects 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with 3 games remaining at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea have averaged 2.18 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 62.5% of those encounters (10 out of 16)
West Ham will make the short trip across to Stamford Bridge one point ahead of Sunday’s opponents. Currently 8th on the table, the Hammers will look to avoid a loss, knowing that London pride is very much at stake. West Ham effectively ended Liverpool’s title ambitions last weekend by securing a 2-2 draw at London Stadium, a positive result that was desperately required for West Ham after registering back-to-back defeats prior to that. The Hammers will be keen to bounce back on their travels as well, having suffered at the hands of Crystal Palace in their most recent road trip. Away from home, West Ham have struggled to keep their opposition at bay, conceding an average of 2.23 goals per game, resulting in 8 defeats from their allotted 17 matches on the road.
West Ham have averaged 1.64 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 82.35% of those encounters (14 out of 17)
Head-to-Head
West Ham won the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season with Chelsea winning 2-1 in this fixture last season.
Verdict
Given how this season has transpired for both teams, one has to fancy goals here. Neither side is in a realistic position to secure Europe next season, so we could possibly be treated to an open game. With both teams guilty of conceding a fair few recently, over 3.5 goals appeals.
Suggested Bet: Totals, Over 3.5 at 1/1
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LIVERPOOL v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR– Click here to bet
Liverpool’s campaign seems to be unravelling at a speed of knots lately. If it’s not poor performances on the pitch, it’s off-pitch scuffles between players and managers. Granted, things get heated in the moment, however, Mohamed Salah’s public frustrations towards Jürgen Klopp will certainly not paint a good image for the Reds. Currently 3rd on the table, Liverpool’s recent 2-2 draw away to West Ham looks to have sealed their fate regarding title aspirations this season. Trailing by 5 points and with 3 games remaining for the Reds, it’s unlikely they will be adding to the Carabao Cup they obtained earlier in their campaign. With the Champions League effectively booked for next season, Liverpool will host Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield having ticked two boxes this season. At home, the Reds boast the best stats in the league, securing 42 points by registering 13 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss so far.
Liverpool have averaged 2.52 goals per game at home this season, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 70.58% of those encounters (12 out of 17)
Tottenham Hotspur is currently 5th on the table, 7 points adrift of Aston Villa for that all-important 4th place in Europe. At the time of writing, Spurs have two games in hand, but that will be cut in half after Thursday’s clash away to Chelsea. They can effectively claw themselves back into contention, but they will need an element of luck along the way, given the opposition they will face en route. Last weekend’s 3-2 loss to London rivals Arsenal was a bitter pill to swallow. Having trailed 3-0 at the break, it was always going to be an uphill battle, despite saving face in the 2nd half by finding the net twice. Away from home, Spurs will aim to improve, having secured 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses so far.
Tottenham Hotspur have averaged 1.93 goals per game this season away from home, with over 2.5 goals arriving in 75% of those encounters (12 out of 16)
Head-to-Head
Tottenham won the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season with Liverpool coming out on top in an entertaining 4-3 win over Tottenham in this fixture last season.
Verdict
Despite the recent off-field issues, I anticipate a strong response from Liverpool at Anfield. It wouldn’t be surprising to see any conflicts resolved between player and coach by Sunday. While Liverpool might not be in top form currently, it’s worth noting that they have the best home record this season. Liverpool has had defensive vulnerabilities, conceding goals in 15 out of 17 matches at Anfield. This suggests that Tottenham Hotspur will have their chances as well. However, I still believe Liverpool will come out on top on the day.
Suggested Bet: Result and both teams to score, Liverpool and yes at 12/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
