We take a look at the 4 AFCON quarter-finals taking place on Friday and Saturday and suggest a bet in each game.
There has been a big shake-up in the betting with Nigeria now the 2/1 favourites ahead of hosts, Ivory Coast at 3/1. Mali are 6/1 and the balance of the field are in double figures including South Africa now priced at 12/1 having been available at 50/1 before the Round of 16 victory over Morocco.
Emilio Nsue is the 4/10 favourite to be the Top Goal Scorer and you can click here for the latest AFCON Outright Markets
FRIDAY
Nigeria v Angola – Click here to bet
Nigeria were the 1/1 favourites to beat Cameroon in their Round of 16 match and they scored a goal in each half to win 2-0. They have come through the group matches undefeated with 2 victories and a draw and all 4 of Nigeria’s AFCON games have delivered profits for under 2.5 goal backers.
Angola beat Namibia 3-0 in a thrilling match which saw them get for their keeper red carded in the first-half only for them to take the lead in the 38th minute before scoring a 2nd in the 42nd with Namibia also getting a red card. The 3rd goal was scored in the 66th minute and they cruised to victory with that comfortable cushion. Angola were also undefeated in their group, drawing 1 game and winning 2.
These sides last met in AFCON 2018 when Nigeria required extra time to win the match.
Nigeria are the 8/11 favourites with Angola priced at 11/2 with the draw at 23/10. While Nigeria games have been low scoring, Angola have had plenty of goals in them and I think the value here lies in over 2.5 goals.
Suggested Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 17/10
DR Congo v Guinea – Click here to bet
The DR Congo drew 1-1 with Egypt in the Round of 16 before coming through a penalty shoot-out, 8-7 to book their spot in the last 8.
DR Congo drew all 3 of their group matches and all 4 of their games have had 2 goals or less in them.
Guinea were the 13/10 favourites to see off Equatorial Guinea in the Round of 16 and they benefitted from a red card for their opponents, going on to win 1-0 with the winner coming in the 98th minute.
Guinea were a mixed bag in qualification, drawing to Cameroon, beating Zambia and losing to Senegal. All four of their games have failed to reach the 3 goal mark.
DR Congo are 16/10 to win the game with the draw 2/1 and Guinea priced at 9/4. Under 2.5 goals is predictably short here at 4/10 and in what should be a tight match the draw is the value play.
Suggested Bet: The draw at 2/1
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SATURDAY
Mali v Ivory Coast – Click here to bet
Mali topped their group ahead of South Africa with 1 win and 2 draws and in the Round of 16. They were 12/10 favourites to see off Burkina Faso in the round of 16 and took a 2 goal lead shortly after half-time only for Burkina Faso to pull oneback in the 57th minute. Mali held on to book their spot in the quarter-finals.
Ivory Coast narrowly avoided early elimination, but they scraped through to the Round of 16 where they were the 5/2 underdogs against Senegal. They trailed as early as the 4th minute, but scored the equaliser in the 86th before winning on penalties. Ivory Coast beat Guinea Bissau in the group stages before losing to Nigeria 1-0 and then 4-0 to Equatorial Guinea.
The bookmakers are expecting home ground advantage to carry the Ivory Coast and they are the 27/20 favourites in this game with the draw 21/10 and Mali priced at 26/10.
From what I have seen of Mali I would have to say that, that is good value to send the host packing.
Suggested Bet: Mali win at 26/10
Cape Verde v South Africa – Click here to bet
Cape Verde have been quietly going about their business. They beat Ghana and Mozambique in the group stages before drawing 2-2 with Egypt. They started 11/10 favourites against Mauritania in the Round of 16 and they took the win scoring from the penalty spot in the 88th minute. 3 of Cape Verde’s 4 games have had 3 goals or more in them.
South Africa started 13/2 underdogs against Tournament favourites Morocco in the Round of 16, but they turned in a brilliant performance for a 2-0 victory with the goals coming in the 57th and 95th minutes.
South Africa opened their campaign with a 2-0 loss to Mali, but hammered Namibia 4-0 and the 0-0 draw with Tunisia was enough to see them through to the Round of 16. These sides last met in World Cup Qualification in 2018 with Cape Verde winning 2-1 home and away.
Cape Verde are the 31/20 favourites for the match with the draw 21/10 and South Africa the underdogs are 22/10. Cape Verde have impressed in this Tournament, but if South Africa can reproduce their display against Morocco I can’t look past a South African victory.
Suggested Bet: South Africa win at 22/10
