Stage 11 of the Vuelta a España takes place on Wednesday and it is a 163.2 kilometre route from Lerma to the Cat 1 climb La Laguna Negra Vinuesa and this looks like it could be another stage for the breakaway.
STAGE 10 WRAP
Filippo Ganna went in to the stage as second favourite at 7/4, but he delivered a superb performance in the individual time trial beating Remco Evenepoel by 16 seconds. Evenepoel was the favourite and my pick for the stage and if you followed us on that one make sure you follow the guidelines in the Promo towards the bottom of the page and get your refund for the 2nd place finish. Roglic finished 20 seconds behind Evenepoel, a good result for him against the World Time Trial Champion. The big surprise of the day was Jonas Vingegaard losing a minute and 2 seconds to Evenepoel and finishing 10th on the stage.
JERSEY UPDATE
Sepp Kuss remains in the lead 26 seconds ahead of Marc Soler and Remco Evenepoel has now moved to 3rd, 1 minute and 9 seconds down and perhaps more importantly 27 seconds ahead of Primoz Roglic. Roglic has now firmed to outright favourite at 11/10 with Evenepoel in to 33/10 and you can get 7/2 Vingegaard and Kuss with 11/1 Ayuso and 22/1 and better the balance.
There was no change in the Green Jersey classification where Kaden Groves remains a short price favourite. Jonas Vingegaard is the 5/1 favourite for the King of the Mountains with Jumbo-Visma 5/6 for the Team Classification.
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THE ROUTE
There are no significant challenges until right at the end of this stage, but the terrain is rolling and looks the sort of stage where a breakaway is going to get clear and will be very hard to peg back. The question on this stage is whether Jumbo-Visma will try to set up a stage win for Primoz Roglic and given that it is not the sort of climb where major differences are going to be made and that there are some big stages lying ahead, I expect Jumbo-Visma to control the race, but without the intention of winning the stage. This means that the breakaway will be left to fight it out.
STAGE 11 BETTING – Click here to bet
Primoz Roglic 7/1
Remco Evenepoel 10/1
Romain Bardet 14/1
Lennard Kamna 14/1
Michael Storer 16/1
Wout Poels 16/1
18/1 and better the balance
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PREDICTION
A strong break to form with no Red Jersey dangers in it and the break stays clear to fight out the stage. Behind there are some skirmishes from the GC players but no big gaps to report.
Ineos have had a poor Vuelta and they are under pressure to get a stage win. Ganna was excellent in the ITT and he can climb well enough to win from a breakaway so lets hope he goes for and gets into the break.
I also fancy Oier Lazkano who has impressed me in this Vuelta and I think he will be in the break and is capable of finishing the job.
Suggested Bet: Ganna win at 100/1
Suggested Bet: Lazkano win at 18/1
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
