The TPC Twin Cities Course in Blaine, Minnesota is the venue for this week’s PGA Tour event, the 3M Open and we select 4 players to take on the bookmakers.
TPC TWIN CITIES
TPC Twin Cities has been used for all four previous renewals of this Tournament which plays to a par 71 and winning scores range from -15 to -21 over the last four years. There have been a number of changes made to the course over the years and perhaps because we have quite a small sample size there is no obvious stat that jumps off the page as a must have for finding a potential winner.
This being the case my focus will be on current form as well as the players record at the TPC Twin Cities.
PAST WINNERS
2022 – Tony Finau -17
2021 – Cameron Champ -15
2020 – Michael Thompson -19
2019 – Matthew Wolf -21
THE FAVOURITES
Tony Finau is the defending Champion and he currently tops the betting boards at 12/1, Cameron Young who featured in the final pairing at The Open Championship on the weekend is 14/1 alongside Sungjae Im with Matsuyama 18/1 and you can get 22/1 and better the balance.
This is certainly one of the weaker PGA Tour fields of the season and let’s hope that can assist us in finding some betting value.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Tony Finau 12/1
Cameron Young 14/1
Sungjae Im 14/1
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
Justin Thomas 22/1
25/1 and better the balance, all prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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SELECTIONS:
I am going to take on the favourite Tony Finau this week as although he has excellent course form he has missed two cuts in a row and hasn’t shown anything of late to suggest he should be a 12/1 favourite.
The conundrum thrown up this week is the fact that many of the top players are returning from playing in The Open Championship and fatigue may be a factor particularly for those who were in contention. At the end of the day though this is not a strong field and I think those players will be able to carry their good form across the pond.
Suggested Bet: Sepp Straka each way at 25/1
Straka was in superb form last week at The Open eventually finishing joint runner-up and I was particularly impressed with how he held things together in the final round. That performance never came out of the blue as he had won his previous start on the back of some pretty indifferent form. Straka didn’t play in last year’s event here, but he did have a Top 20 finish back in 2020 and given where his game is at the moment I am making him a big runner.
Suggested Bet: Emiliano Grillo each way at 25/1
I was trying to decide whether to go with Grillo or Straka and in the end have stuck them both in to the staking plan. Grillo was 2nd to Finau here last year and although he had a missed cut here in 2021, he also finished 3rd in 2020 so he clearly loves the course. He has been very hit and miss over the last few weeks, but won 6 starts back and was 6th last week at The Open where I was particularly impressed by the way he came back from a poor start in the final round.
Suggested Bet: Nicolai Hojgaard each way at 50/1
Hojgaard has looked very good in the last few weeks and got a Top 25 to his name at The Open Championship and that on the back of a 6th place finish the week before . He makes his debut in this event and from what I have seen of his game at Hoylake I think he has every chance of going close.
Suggested Bet: Cameron Champ each way at 66/1
Champ hasn’t been in the best of form, but he did show good improvement last week finishing 17th at the Barracuda although that field was weaker than this one due to the clash with The Open Championship. It is enough to get me him into my staking plan though as he has a good affinity for this course winning in 2021 and finishing just outside the Top 15 last year. I am backing him to continue his improved form.
