Stage 8 of the Tour de France is a 200.7 kilometre drag from Libourne to Limoges and although on the face of it, it looks to be a straight sprint finish the final third of the stage is quite tough with a number of hills and this stage could favour the tougher sprinters like Mathieu Van Der Poel and Wout Van Aert.
STAGE 7 WRAP
Jasper Philipsen delivered a winner for us at 1/1 in Stage 7 when he sprinted to victory ahead of Mark Cavendish who is chasing that magical 35th victory. Biniam Girmay can count himself unlucky as Philipsen cut across him when grabbing on to Cavendish’s wheel. Cavendish had some mechanical problems in the final 50 metres and but for that could have also got a lot closer to Philipsen.
The day itself was a slow one with no one wanting to get into the early break although when Nans Peters and Pierre Latour got clear we were treated to a decent chase.
JERSEY UPDATE
Although there was no change to the Yellow Jersey classification Jonas Vingegaard has shortened from 9/10 to 7/10 suggesting that punters feel the bookmakers over reacted to the initial move after the Pogacar win in Stage 6. Pogacar is 5/4 and it remains very much a two horse race.
Pogacar is the 11/4 favourite to win the King of the Mountains and Ineos are trading at 4/10 to win the Team Classification. Philipsen has further strengthened his hold on the Green Jersey and is trading at 1/5. It may be time for bookmakers to price a market without Philipsen to generate some betting interest.
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STAGE 8 BETTING – Click here to bet
Jasper Philipsen 11/4
Wout Van Aert 4/1
Mathieu Van Der Poel 6/1
Caleb Ewan 9/1
Biniam Girmay 11/1
14/1 and better the balance
THE ROUTE
The first 123 kilometres looks flat but we then get a 2.8 kilometre Cat 3 climb rising at 5.2%. We have rolling hills from there on and then another Cat 4 climb with around 16 kilometres to go and heading into the final 10 kilometres there is another Cat 4 climb of 1.2 kilometres at 5.4%. The last kilometre of the stage also rises at around 4%.
VERDICT
It is going to be interesting to see what sort of breakaway goes clear and perhaps we will have more of a battle than in recent days. At the end of the day though I think there are too many teams that want to bring this back together and we are going to get a weak break that will be given little leeway.
Whether or not the sprinters like Groenewegen, Cavendish and even Philipsen can hang on will depend on how the final climbs are ridden and I suspect this stage is going to be ridden very hard towards the end with Jumbo-Visma potentially looking to set up Wout Van Aert for the win.
I think we will get a reduced bunch coming into the finish line although probably still will be around 60-70 riders strong. I expect that rather than leading out Philipsen, Mathieu Van Der Poel will be sprinting for the win, but I think he is going to be pipped by his old rival, Wout Van Aert.
Suggested Bet: Wout Van Aert win at 4/1
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