We take a look at the 5th Round of Super Rugby matches taking place this weekend and suggest a bet in each game.
OUTRIGHT BETTING UPDATE
The Chiefs have shortened into 37/20 favourites to win the Super Rugby Title with the Blues second in the betting at 95/40 and the Crusaders priced at 26/10, you can get 13/2 and better the balance and you can click here for the long-term betting markets including to miss the play-offs where the Waratahs are trading at 23/20.
FRIDAY
Crusaders v Brumbies – Click here to bet
The Crusaders pulled off an impressive win last week away to the Blues in Auckland getting up 34-28. That result leaves them 4th on the table with 2 victories and 2 defeats this season.
The Brumbies started slowly before drawing clear to hammer Moana Pasifika 62-36 in Canberra and they currently sit 2nd on the table behind the Chiefs with a 100% record after 4 games.
Handicap: Crusaders -17.5
The Brumbies have decided to rest key players for this game and the Crusaders are now massive favourites, but given the strength of this Crusaders pack I don’t think the handicap is big enough.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Crusaders -17.5 at 9/10
Place a multiple on all 4 South African URC teams this week, and if your bet loses by 1 leg, we will refund your stake in Free Bet vouchers
Waratahs v Chiefs – Click here to bet
The Waratahs were away to the Hurricanes last week and they went down 34-17 in Wellington. Their only home match this season was in Week 1 when they went down 25-31 to the Brumbies and they are currently sitting 9th on the table.
The Chiefs have a 100% record and sit top of the table thanks to the collection of bonus points in 3 of their 4 matches. They were given a good game by the Rebels at home last week, but eventually emerged 44-25 victors.
Handicap: Waratahs +15.5
The Waratahs have a big injury list and I can understand why the Chiefs are such large favourites, but I am going to focus on the Total Points Line here where I expect a free flowing games to deliver 55 points or more.
Suggested Bet: Over 54.5 points at 9/10
SATURDAY
Highlanders v Fijian Drua – Click here to bet
The Highlanders sit 11th on the table with just 1 win in their opening 4 games. That came last week at home against the Force where they won 43-35.
The Drua are currently 7th on the log with a 50% win/loss record and last week they gave the Reds a good run in Brisbane going down 27-24.
Handicap: Highlanders -8.5
The Highlanders have a lengthy injury list and the handicap looks about right so I am once again looking for points and in this case at least 59 of them which seems reasonable given there were 78 points in the Highlanders / Force game last week.
Suggested Bet: Over 58.5 points at 17/20
Moana Pasifika v Hurricanes – click here to bet
Moana Pasifika are currently bottom of the table without a win in their 4 matches and after a strong start last week they were blown away 62-36 by the Brumbies in Canberra. The week before they lost to a last minute penalty against the Force in Perth.
The Hurricanes are 3rd on the table with 3 wins and 1 defeat in their opening 4 games. They had few problems seeing off the Waratahs 34-17 at home last week and on the road this season they beat the Rebels by 6 and the Reds by 34.
Handicap: Moana Pasifika +18.5
Three of the four Moana Pasifika games have had over 70 points in them and I have no hesitation in going overs again in this one, all be it the line is now in the early sixties.
Suggested Bet: Total Points over 61.5 at 9/10
Rebels v Reds – Click here to bet
The Rebels sit 10th on the table with 1 win and 3 defeats in their opening 4 games although most punters would agree they performed better than expected this season beating the handicap in their last 3 matches. They were well beaten by the Chiefs last week going down 44-25 after a strong start in Hamilton and the week before they beat the Waratahs 24-27 at home.
The Reds were a popular choice for punters last week with the handicap moving from -13.5 to -17.5 against the Drua, but they failed to deliver eventually scraping a 27-24 home win. They currently sit 6th on the table with a 50% win/loss record.
Handicap: Rebels +5.5
I still feel that the bookmakers are under-estimating the Rebels this season and I think they can win this game and I am backing them to do that at just under 2/1.
Suggested Bet: Rebels win at 19/10
Blues v Western Force – Click here to bet
Blues currently sit 4th on the log with 2 wins and 2 defeats in their opening 4 games. They were involved in a titanic clash with the Crusaders at home last week, but unfortunately went down 28-34 and they will be looking to make amends against the Force.
The Force have also got a 50% record and sit 8th on the log and last week they fought hard before going down 43-35 to the Highlanders on the road. They previously won a low scoring game at home to Moana Pasifika, but generally speaking their defence has been poor and they conceded 71 points to the Reds in Melbourne.
Handicap: Blues -21.5
This is another big handicap that I don’t think is big enough.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Blues -21.5 at 9/10
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
