Stage 5 of the Tour de France is a 157 kilometres starting in Lille Metropole and ending in Arenberg Porte du Hainaut and although there is not a mountain or classified climb in sight it promises to be the first real test for the General Classification candidates.
STAGE 4 RECAP
This stage went very much as expected initially with two riders allowed to get into a break that was never given any sort of chance. The pace ramped up over the final 30 to 40 kilometres and the last short, but steep climb with 11 kilometres to go proved too much for the likes of Dylan Groenewegen as it was raced hard by Jumbo-Visna and Ineos in particular.
Wout Van Aert, the favourite for the stage and our selection was expected to win from a reduced sprint, but instead he drove clear at the top of the final climb and ended up riding to a solo victory, chased home by the unfortunate Jasper Phillipsen who celebrated thinking he had won the stage with Van Aert’s teammate, Laporte completing the podium.
JERSEY UPDATE
The Yellow Jersey betting remains constant and while Wout Van Aert has extended his lead to 25 seconds, Tadej Pogacar is perfectly poised strike and the short-price favourite. Wout Van Aert has taken a firm hold on the Green Jersey where he continues to shorten and the only Classifications with fairly open looks to it at the moment are the King of the Mountains and the Team Classification.
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STAGE 5 BETTING – Click here to bet
Matthieu Van Der Poel 7/2
Wout Van Aert 9/2
Mads Pedersen 9/1
Matej Mohoric 11/1
Peter Sagan 14/1
Florian Senecha 16/1
Yves Lampaert 18/1
Fabio Jakobsen 20/1
Jasper Stuyven 22/1
25/1 and better the balance
STAGE 5 ROUTE & PREDICTIONS
There are 11 cobbled sections, but they all come in the second-half of this relatively short stage which measures 157 kilometres. I expect there will be quite a battle for the breakaway, but in the end I would expect the break to be caught with 30 to 40 kilometres to go.
The pace is going to be very high the moment the first cobble sector is hit and finding a winner won’t be easy as team tactics will play a big role. Wout Van Aert for example must be a firm favourite on current form, but there is every chance that he has to play the role of teammate tomorrow to his leaders Roglic and Vingegaard and one man who I feel has been holding himself back for the stage is Matthieu Van Der Poel and it is no surprise to see him sitting at the top of the betting boards.
I am going to back the Dutchman with the knowledge that WSB are offering my stake back in free bets should he finish second.
Selection: Van Der Poel at 7/2
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
