The San Siro Stadium in Milan Italy plays host to the UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and England on Friday. We take a look at the match from a betting angle.
Italy and England sit 3rd and 4th respectively in Group 3 of the Nations League and defeat here for England would likely see them relegated to Group B of the Nations League while Italy still harbour more realistic hopes of making the finals.
Italy are undefeated on home soil in this competition drawing 1-1 with Germany and beating Hungary 2-1. Last time out they were hammered 5-2 in Germany and that came off the back of a goalless draw against the English away.
England are without a victory after 4 matches and they were stunned 4-0 at home by Hungary last time out. Their away form has been mixed with a 1-1 draw at Germany and a 1-0 defeat to Hungary.
Italy have not qualified for the World Cup later this year so probably be the more focused of the two sides on this competition, but at the same time they will also be looking to blood for the future as they hope to qualify for Euro 2024.
England were semi-finalists in the last World Cup then lost in the final to Italy in Euro 2020 (took place in 2021) where they failed to hold on to their lead that they got early in the final at Wembley. Despite those strong showings in most major tournaments, Manager, Gareth Southgate is under fire at the moment and his sides current form certainly is shaky given they are heading into the World Cup towards the end of the year.
BETTING – Click here to bet
I expect this to be a low scoring affair and over 2.5 goals is trading at 23/20 with under 2.5 goals at 4/6. It does surprise me that England are priced as favourites for this game given their recent form and England haven’t beaten Italy in their last 5 meetings dating back to 2012. I don’t see much in this game and a narrow Italian victory by exactly 1 goal is priced at 33/10, but I am going to stick with a straight win bet here at what I consider to be a generous price.
Suggested Bet: Italy win at 18/10
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change