Let’s start with the latest English Premier league Outright Betting where Manchester City have shortened from 4/10 to 1/8 after the weekend action. Liverpool are out from 18/10 to 6/1 having dropped points against Tottenham while City hammered Newcastle 5-0 at home. The relegation battle is an interesting one and Burnley and Leeds are trading at 10/11 and 1/1 respectively to go down in what is a 4 horse race with Everton 12/1 and Southampton 100/1.
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Aston Villa are in good form and are up to 11th on the table having taken 7 points from their last 9 played for. Last time out they beat Burnley 3-1 on the road, prior to that they had seen off Norwich 2-0 at home. Overall at home this season they have played 16, winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 7 and their last 5 home games they have won 2 and lost 3.
Liverpool are 2nd on the table, 3 points behind Manchester City and their slim title hopes were all but extinguished on Saturday when they could only draw 1-1 at home to Tottenham. Liverpool have been strong on the road this season losing just twice in the 17 matches with 4 draws and 11 victories. They have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 away games.
Aston Villa home games have averaged 3.2 goals each this season with 10 of the 16 matches delivering you a profit had you backed over 2.5 goals. Liverpool’s away games have seen 11 of the 17 matches reach the 3 goal mark and have averaged 3.3 goals each.
Liverpool edged Aston Villa 1-0 at home in the reverse fixture and last season Aston Villa stunned Liverpool with a 7-2 victory at Villa Park.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Aston Villa 11/2
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Aston Villa (+0.5) goals at 18/10
For this bet to arrive we need Aston Villa to either draw or win the match something I think is a realistic prospect against a Liverpool side that must be mentally down after the weekend. They still have a Champions League final to look forward to, but I would not be surprised if they have mentally written off their EPL challenge and that could make them ripe for the taking.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change